#22 Weekly Update - Tesla at 346 Up 71% - Valuation Dilemma - Math Meets Rush
When Traditional Metrics Against Revolutionary Potential
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📅Week Calendar June 02-08, 2025
High Impact Events
Monday June 2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Forecast 52.3%, Previous 50.2%
ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): Forecast 48.7%, Previous 48.7%
Tuesday June 3
JOLTS Job Openings (Apr): Forecast 7.1%, Previous 7.193%
Wednesday June 4
ADP Employment Change (May): Forecast 115, Previous 62K
S&P Global Services PMI (May): Forecast 52.3%, Previous 50.8%
ISM Services PMI (May): Forecast 52%, Previous 51.6%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May): Forecast 52%, Previous 51.6%
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May): Previous 65.1%
Thursday June 5
Initial Jobless Claims (May/31): Forecast 235K, Previous 240K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May/31): Forecast 232K, Previous 230.75K
Continuing Jobless Claims (May/24): Forecast 1.9K, Previous 1.9K
Friday June 6
U-6 Unemployment Rate (May): Forecast 7.8%, Previous 7.8%
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (May): Forecast 140K, Previous 167K
Unemployment Rate (May): Forecast 4.2%, Previous 4.2%
Non Farm Payrolls (May): Forecast 130K, Previous 177K
Key Market Positioning
CFTC S&P 500 speculative positions: -53%
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative positions: 17%
CFTC Crude Oil speculative positions: 186.4
CFTC Gold Speculative positions: 174.2
Notable Fed Speakers scheduled throughout the week include Logan, Goolsbee, Bostic, and Harker, with multiple speeches scheduled.
Last Week Recap:
I've been tracking Tesla since 2020, back when people though it was crazy for suggesting it might be overvalued at a $90 billion market cap. Fast forward to today, and here we are at $1.16 trillion, with the stock hovering around $346. The P/E ratio? A stomach-churning 174.
Let me put this in perspective: I've never seen a trillion-dollar company sustain this kind of multiple. Not Apple at its peak. Not Microsoft during the dot-com bubble. Tesla is charting new territory, and as a quant who lives and breathes numbers, this is deeply uncomfortable.
The Numbers Game
First quarter 2025 was brutal. Vehicle sales down 13%, automotive revenue cratered 20% year-over-year. These aren't growth stock numbers. They're value trap numbers wearing a tech stock costume.
Wall Street consensus has earnings at $1.99 per share for the trailing twelve months. Do the math: $346 divided by $1.99 gets you that eye-watering P/E of 174. The analyst community remains split, with price targets ranging from Goldman's cautious $235 to Wedbush's bullish $500. That's a 113% spread between bears and bulls - I rarely see such disagreement on a mega-cap stock.
The forward estimates tell an interesting story:
2025: $1.93 EPS (180x P/E)
2026: $2.88 EPS (120x P/E)
2029: $7.69 EPS (45x P/E)
That 2029 multiple starts looking reasonable, but it requires flawless execution across multiple moonshot projects. In my models, the probability of hitting all those targets? Maybe 15-20% on a good day.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.