Today's Update 05-29-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Data Releases
United States:
US Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 ET)
Actual: 240k
Forecast: 230k
Previous: 227k (Revised from 226k)
US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate (Q1 2025)
Actual: -0.2%
Forecast: -0.3%
Previous: -0.3%
US GDP Price Index
Actual: 3.7%
Forecast: 3.7%
Previous: 3.5%
US Core PCE Prices Preliminary
Actual: 3.4%
Forecast: 3.5%
Previous: 3.5%
US Continued Jobless Claims
Actual: 1.919 million
Forecast: 1.893 million
Previous: 1.903 million (Revised from 1.893 million)
US PCE Prices Preliminary
Actual: 3.6%
Previous: 3.6%
US GDP Deflator SA Preliminary
Actual: 3.7%
Previous: 3.7%
Canada:
Canadian Current Account (Q1 2025)
Actual: -2.127 billion CAD
Forecast: -3.24 billion CAD
Previous: -4.99 billion CAD (Revised from -3.56 billion CAD)
Japan:
Japanese Consumer Confidence
Actual: 32.8
Forecast: 31.8
Previous: 31.2
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
Actual: 3.5%
Forecast: 3.5%
Previous: 3.4%
Tokyo CPI Overall
Actual: 3.4%
Forecast: 3.4%
Previous: 3.5%
Italy:
Italian Industrial Sales MoM
Actual: -1.6%
Previous: -0.4%
Italian Manufacturing Business Confidence
Actual: 86.5
Forecast: 86.2
Previous: 85.7
Italian Consumer Confidence
Actual: 96.5
Forecast: 93.0
Previous: 92.7
Italian Non-EU Flash Trade Balance
Actual: €2.18 billion
Previous: €5.96 billion
Spain:
Spanish Retail Sales SA YoY
Actual: 4.0%
Previous: 3.6%
Australia:
Australian Capital Expenditure QoQ
Actual: -0.1%
Forecast: 0.5%
Previous: -0.2%
Market Movements
S&P 500 Futures: Up 1.1%
Nasdaq 100 Index Futures: Up 1.6%
Asian and European Shares: Posted smaller gains
Treasury Yields: Fell (prices rose)
US Dollar Index: Steady
Oil Prices: Climbed as traders weighed risks to Iranian and Russian supplies
Corporate News
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA):
Shares gained 6% in early trading.
CEO Jensen Huang predicted "exponential growth" for the AI computing market.
Solid sales forecast despite a slowdown in China.
Expected to begin its robotaxi service in Austin on June 12.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST):
Q3 2025 Earnings scheduled for May 29 at 16:15 ET.
Estimated EPS: $4.24
Estimated Revenue: $63.29 billion
Earnings Call at 17:00 ET.
International News
US Court Ruling: Blocked some of President Donald Trump's import tariffs, boosting market sentiment.
Kazakhstan:
OPEC+ member; plans to hike oil output at the upcoming meeting on Saturday.
Oil output may dip slightly due to maintenance at the Tengiz oil field.
China:
Vice Premier Liu He urged the US to stop discriminatory measures.
Open to dialogue with the EU to resolve trade issues.
People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected 266 billion yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4%.
European Central Bank (ECB):
71% of economists expect the ECB to pause rate hikes in July.
Majority expect at least one more rate hike before a pause.
Eurozone economy projected to grow 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
Central Bank Updates
Bank of Korea (BOK):
Governor Rhee stated that 4 out of 6 members are open to a rate cut in the next 3 months.
Growth outlook cut due to impact from the construction sector.
Monitoring risks of rising household debt and exchange rate impacts.
Other Notable News
White House Senior Advisor Kevin Hassett:
Confident that the tariff ruling will be overturned on appeal.
Expects more trade deals in the coming weeks.
Stated that the tariff ruling will not affect ongoing trade deals.
Redfin: Reported that there are 34% more sellers than buyers in the current housing market.
Currency Strength (As of 03:03 ET, May 29)
Strongest to Weakest: AUD, CAD, USD, GBP, EUR, NZD, CHF, JPY
Upcoming Events
Costco (COST) Earnings:
May 29
16:15 ET: Q3 2025 Earnings Release
17:00 ET: Earnings Call
OPEC+ Meeting:
Scheduled for Saturday, with expectations of a potential output hike.
Major Policy Development:
US trade court blocked Trump's reciprocal tariffs - massive market catalyst
White House adviser Hassett confident ruling will be overturned on appeal
Trade deals with India progressing (US team visiting June 5-6)
Energy & Commodities:
Oil climbing on Iran/Russia supply risk concerns
OPEC+ expected to discuss output hikes at Saturday meeting
EIA inventory data pending at 12:00 ET
Upcoming Catalysts:
Costco (COST) earnings: 4:15 PM ET (EPS: $4.24, Rev: $63.29B)
Multiple Fed speakers throughout the day
Japan PM Ishiba-Trump call scheduled for Thursday evening
Final Thoughts
Today's market action perfectly illustrates why I've been successful for five decades - it's all about reading the interconnected signals. The tariff court ruling created an immediate relief rally, but the real story is NVIDIA's continued AI dominance driving tech sentiment.
The softer Core PCE reading (3.4% vs 3.5% expected) gives the Fed more breathing room, which explains the USD weakness and bond yield compression. However, don't get too comfortable - jobless claims rising above expectations suggests labor market cracks are forming.
The currency strength chart tells a compelling story: commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) leading while safe havens (CHF, JPY) lag. This risk-on rotation, combined with the tariff relief, suggests markets are pricing in a more stable trade environment.
Watch Costco's earnings closely tonight - retail spending patterns will give us crucial insights into consumer resilience. With 10 million readers counting on our analysis, remember that today's rally, while impressive, needs to be validated by sustained economic fundamentals beyond just AI euphoria.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry