Today's Update 05-28-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
United States:
MBA Mortgage Applications (May 28):
Actual: -1.2%
Previous: -5.1%
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate:
Actual: 6.98%
Previous: 6.92%
Redbook Index YoY:
Actual: 6.1%
Previous: 5.4%
Effective Federal Funds Rate (May 27):
Actual: 4.33%
Previous (May 23): 4.33%
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) (May 27):
Actual: 4.31%
Previous (May 23): 4.26%
Upcoming Events:
10:00 ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -9
Previous: -13
14:00 ET: FOMC Meeting Minutes Release
16:30 ET (Tentative): API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Change
Previous: +2.499 million barrels
Corporate Earnings
Scheduled for May 28:
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)
Earnings Release: 16:00 ET
Expected Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.55
Expected Revenue: $9.75 billion
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Earnings Release: 16:20 ET
Expected EPS: $0.89
Expected Revenue: $43.27 billion
Market News and Developments
U.S. Stock Futures:
Status: Mixed performance ahead of key earnings reports.
Context: Investors are cautious as they anticipate NVIDIA's earnings, focusing on the impact of trade tensions and developments in artificial intelligence sectors.
OPEC+ Meeting Updates:
Ministerial Meeting Commenced: OPEC+ ministers have begun their online meeting.
JMMC Recommendations: The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) made no output policy recommendations during their session.
Global Trade and Relations:
EU-U.S. Trade Talks:
EU Trade Commissioner Statement: There are ongoing conversations with the U.S. regarding tariff lines and cooperation in sectors like aviation, semiconductors, and steel.
EU-UAE Trade Deal:
Announcement: The EU and the United Arab Emirates have officially launched negotiations for a trade agreement.
China's Engagement with Global Financial Institutions:
Vice Premier He's Message: Welcomed U.S. financial institutions and long-term capital investment into China's capital markets.
Geopolitical Developments:
Russia-Ukraine Negotiations:
Kremlin Announcement: Istanbul may serve as the venue for the next round of talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian Update: President Zelenskiy noted that Ukraine's Defense Minister had a call with the head of the Russian delegation.
Germany-Russia Relations:
Kremlin's Response: Criticized statements by Germany's Chancellor Merz regarding long-range weapons, suggesting such remarks provoke conflict.
Chancellor Merz Statement: Germany is in discussions with the U.S. about imposing further sanctions on Russia.
Market Imbalances:
Market-on-Open (MOO) Imbalances:
S&P 500: -$49 million
Nasdaq 100: -$77 million
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -$17 million
"Magnificent 7" Stocks: -$60 million
Additional Metrics
Federal Reserve Rates:
Effective Federal Funds Rate:
May 27: 4.33%
May 23: 4.33%
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR):
May 27: 4.31%
May 23: 4.26%
Energy Inventories (Upcoming):
API Crude Oil Stock Change:
Previous: +2.499 million barrels
API Gasoline Stock Change:
Previous: -3.238 million barrels
API Distillate Stock Change:
Previous: -1.401 million barrels
Mortgage Rates:
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate:
Current: 6.98%
Previous: 6.92%
MBA Mortgage Applications Index:
Current Weekly Change: -1.2%
Previous Weekly Change: -5.1%
Market Sentiment Indicators
Opening Imbalances:
S&P 500: -$49M
Nasdaq 100: -$77M
Dow 30: -$17M
Magnificent 7: -$60M
Energy Sector Watch:
API inventory data pending (crude oil +2.499M barrels previous)
OPEC+ meeting in progress with no immediate policy changes
Final Thoughts
Today's market setup presents a fascinating confluence of factors that could drive significant volatility. The European data shows mixed signals - while French GDP held steady, the unemployment picture in Germany is deteriorating faster than expected, and Swedish trade balance took a notable hit.
The real fireworks will likely come after the bell with NVIDIA's earnings. With revenue expectations of $43.27B, this report could either validate the AI rally or trigger a broader tech selloff. The negative opening imbalances across major indices suggest investors are positioning defensively ahead of this pivotal moment.
The FOMC minutes at 2 PM will provide crucial insights into the Fed's thinking, especially given the recent uptick in mortgage rates to nearly 7%. Meanwhile, the ongoing OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical developments around Gaza could add another layer of complexity to energy markets.
With retail sales showing strength (Redbook up to 6.1%) but mortgage applications declining, we're seeing a tale of two consumers - those with cash are spending, while those needing credit are pulling back. This divergence, combined with tonight's tech earnings, could set the tone for the remainder of the week.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry