Today's Update 05-27-2025

Key Points and Metrics

Key Points and Metrics:

---

Economic Data Releases:

• Trump Media's Bitcoin Treasury Deal:

  • Announcement: Trump Media announced a $2.5 billion Bitcoin Treasury deal.

  • Ticker: $DJT

  • Market Impact: Bitcoin (BTC) strengthened following the news.

• U.S. Consumer Confidence (May 2025):

  • Actual: 98.0

  • Forecast: 87.05

  • Previous: 86.0 (revised from 85.7)

  • Insight: The Conference Board reported that 12-month inflation expectations eased to 6.5% from 7% in April.

• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (April Preliminary):

  • Headline Durable Goods Orders:

    • Actual: -6.3%

    • Forecast: -7.8%

    • Previous: 9.2%

  • Core Durable Goods Orders (Excludes Transportation):

    • Actual: +0.2%

    • Forecast: 0%

    • Previous: 0.0%

• Federal Reserve Insights:

  • Fed's Barkin:

    • There's no evidence that the drop in sentiment is affecting spending.

    • Tariffs and inflation are reflected in consumer sentiment.

  • Fed's Kashkari:

    • Slow movement may be warranted amid uncertainty.

    • Plans to maintain rates until there's clarity on tariffs.

    • Current Federal Reserve policy is likely only modestly restrictive.

    • Trade talks may take months or years to conclude.

• European Central Bank (ECB) Activities:

  • Public-Sector Bond Purchases: Settled €2,016.3 billion.

  • Corporate Bond Purchases: Settled €268.5 billion.

  • PEPP Holdings: Bond holdings under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme stand at €1.52 trillion.

  • Forex Reserves: Increased by €300 million to €342.8 billion.

• Currency Strength Chart:

  • Strongest to Weakest: USD, CAD, GBP, CHF, EUR, AUD, NZD, JPY.

• Effective Federal Funds Rate:

  • Remained steady at 4.33% on both May 22 and May 23.

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda's Comments:

  • Japan is closer to achieving its 2% inflation target but hasn't reached it sustainably yet.

  • The BoJ may adjust the degree of monetary easing if incoming data boosts confidence in their baseline scenario.

• U.S. Housing Market Data:

  • US House Price Index (YoY):

    • Actual: +3.7%

    • Previous: +3.9%

  • Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (YoY):

    • Actual: +4.07%

    • Forecast: +4.5%

    • Previous: +4.5%

  • US House Price Index (MoM):

    • Actual: -0.1%

    • Forecast: +0.1%

    • Previous: +0.1%

• China's Economic Outlook:

  • Premier Li's Statements:

    • China's economy has continued to recover and improve.

    • Exports have maintained resilience despite external pressures.

    • China is willing to deepen regional cooperation and remove trade barriers.

• Trade Relations and Tariffs:

  • Trump's Comments:

    • The EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates, which is viewed as a positive development.

    • Expressed hope that the EU will open up for trade with the U.S.

    • Satisfaction with a 50% tariff allotment on the European Union.

  • Potential New Sanctions:

    • Reports suggest Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia in the coming days.

• Upcoming Earnings Estimates (May 28):

  • Salesforce (CRM):

    • Reporting Time: 16:00 ET

    • Expected EPS: $2.55

    • Expected Revenue: $9.75 billion

  • NVIDIA (NVDA):

    • Reporting Time: 16:20 ET

    • Expected EPS: $0.89

    • Expected Revenue: $43.27 billion

---

Market Sentiment Analysis

Positive Drivers:

• Consumer confidence surge suggests economic resilience

• Trump's tariff deadline extension reducing trade war fears

• Bitcoin treasury moves boosting crypto sentiment

• Better-than-expected durable goods data

Risk Factors:

• Potential Russia sanctions escalation

• Fed policy uncertainty amid tariff discussions

• Dollar weakness continuing (DXY at July 2023 lows)

• ECB hawks calling for rate cut pause

---

Final Thoughts

Today's data paints a picture of cautious optimism. The consumer confidence jump to 98.0 is particularly noteworthy - it's the highest reading we've seen in months and suggests Americans are feeling more secure despite ongoing policy uncertainties. This could be the green light for continued consumer spending, which drives 70% of our economy.

The Trump Media Bitcoin move is fascinating from a corporate treasury perspective. At $2.5B, this ranks among the largest Bitcoin treasury allocations by any public company. It signals growing institutional acceptance and could trigger more corporate FOMO into crypto assets.

However, keep your eye on the dollar's continued slide. The DXY hitting July 2023 lows isn't just a technical level - it reflects real concerns about fiscal deficits and tariff impacts. This could actually be bullish for risk assets and commodities in the near term.

With NVIDIA earnings tomorrow, we're at a critical juncture for tech leadership. The options market is pricing in significant volatility, so buckle up!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.

---

Like and share. It helps the publication to continue to grow.

Remember what goes up must come down (eventually)
Stay safe and invest wisely and this is in no mean financial advice. [Full Disclaimer]

Thank you for supporting this newsletter. It will keep improving.

Harry