#24 Weekly Update - 3 Opportunities in a Fragmenting Market
Hovering at All Time Highs
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📅Week Calendar June 16-22, 2025
High Impact Events
Monday June 16
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun): Forecast N/A, Previous -6.7%, Actual -9.2%
Tuesday June 17
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (May): Forecast 0.2%, Actual 0.2%
Retail Sales YoY (May): Forecast 4.9%, Actual 5.2%
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (May): Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.1%
Retail Sales MoM (May): Forecast 0.1%, Actual 0.1%
Wednesday June 18
Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/07): Forecast 2.0K, Actual 2.0K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Jun/14): Forecast 247.5, Actual 240.25
Housing Starts (May): Forecast 1.36%, Actual 1.361%
Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/14): Forecast 255, Actual 248
FOMC Minutes: High Impact
FOMC Economic Projections: High Impact
Fed Interest Rate Decision: Forecast 4.5%, Actual 4.5%
Fed Press Conference: High Impact
Thursday June 19
No high impact events (Initial Jobless Claims shown as Medium impact)
Friday June 20
No high impact events
Notable Market Data Points
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions: -127.7
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions: 17.7%
CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions: 191.9
CFTC Gold Speculative net positions: 187.5
The economic calendar for June 16-22, 2025 is heavily USD-focused with several high-impact events concentrated on Wednesday, June 18, particularly around the Fed interest rate decision, FOMC minutes, and employment data.
Last Week Recap:
The Quantitative Picture: What Monday's Open Will Tell Us
Looking at the cross-currents in our market right now, I'm seeing something that reminds me of those moments when multiple weather systems collide - you get either spectacular clearings or sudden storms. The numbers are painting a story that most people are missing.
The VIX Tells No Lies
The volatility index dropping 35 points recently represents one of the most dramatic fear unwinding events I've tracked. When you see the VIX at 16.5 after touching above 21 just days ago, that's not just statistical noise - that's institutional money making decisive moves. The correlation breakdown between the VIX and equity prices this week signals something fundamental is shifting beneath the surface.
What makes this particularly interesting is the timing. We're not seeing this volatility compression during a grinding bull market rally. Instead, it's happening while we're getting rotation between sectors, which historically suggests we're entering a new phase rather than just extending the old one.
Sector Rotation
The numbers show Communication Services up 6.2% while Energy dropped 2.1% this week. That's not random - that's capital flowing toward growth and away from value in a very specific way. But here's what the surface numbers miss: within Energy, the renewable infrastructure plays are seeing accumulation while traditional oil names get distribution.
I've been tracking institutional flow data, and what I'm seeing is quite different from the headline sector performance. Smart money is rotating from momentum to quality, but they're being surgical about it. The Russell 2000's 0.46% outperformance tells us risk appetite is returning to smaller names, which usually happens when professional investors see value that retail hasn't discovered yet.
Three Stocks I'm Watching This Week
NVIDIA ( NVDA 0.00%↑ ) - Target: $170
The fundamental picture here is cleaner than people realize. Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion isn't just a big number - it's validation that AI infrastructure demand has real staying power. What I like most is the institutional positioning. Taiwan Semiconductor's recent revenue surprise gives us a real-time gauge of chip demand, and the numbers are telling us this cycle has legs.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.