#23 Weekly Update - ASML +90% Monopole - The Trade Dance Continues
ASML breakout amid trade tensions and inflation data
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📅Week Calendar June 09-15, 2025
High Impact Events
Wednesday June 11
Core Inflation Rate YoY (May): Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%
Core Inflation Rate MoM (May): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%
Inflation Rate MoM (May): Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2%
Inflation Rate YoY (May): Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.3%
CPI s.a (May): Forecast 321.6, Previous 320.321
CPI (May): Forecast 321.9, Previous 320.795
Thursday June 12
Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/07): Forecast 239, Previous 247
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Jun/07): Forecast 237, Previous 235
Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31): Forecast 1.9K, Previous 1.9K
Producer Price Index MoM (May): Forecast 0.2%, Previous -0.5%
Friday June 13
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun): Forecast 52.1%, Previous 52.2%
Notable Market Data Points
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions: -69.4%
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions: 14.7%
CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions: 168
CFTC Gold Speculative net positions: 187.9
Inflation Expectations (Jun): Previous 6.6%
The economic calendar shows primarily USD-focused events with several high-impact inflation and employment readings scheduled for mid-June.
Last Week Recap:
ASML is starting to look interesting again. Not in a "buy everything that moves" way, but in that specific way where the numbers are telling a different story than the headlines.
ASML: When Everyone's Looking Left, Look Right
ASML's trading around $755 on NASDAQ right now. The analyst crowd - and take this with whatever grain of salt you prefer - has targets sitting between $904-906. That's a 22-24% gap. Now, I'm not saying analyst targets are gospel (they're often wrong), but when you see that kind of disconnect, it's worth digging deeper.
Their Q1 numbers were solid: €7.7 billion in revenue, up 46% year-over-year. More importantly, they're sitting on a €36 billion backlog. That's not hope and dreams - that's actual orders waiting to be filled. The one hiccup? Net bookings came in at €3.9 billion versus the €4.89 billion analysts wanted. China restrictions are the culprit there.
Speaking of China, here's where it gets interesting. ASML is actively reducing their China exposure - expecting it to drop to 20-25% of sales this year, down from 49% at the peak in Q2 2024. Some see this as a negative. I see it as de-risking. They're basically saying "we don't need to dance with uncertainty when we've got customers lined up elsewhere."
The kicker? They still have a monopoly on EUV lithography systems. You literally cannot make cutting-edge AI chips without their machines. Five of their new High-NA systems are already deployed. This isn't commodity hardware - this is the only game in town for advanced chip manufacturing.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.