Today's Update 06-03-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Indicators:
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (April):
Actual: 7.391 million
Forecast: 7.1 million
Previous: 7.192 million
Release Time: 10:00 AM ET
U.S. Factory Orders Month-over-Month (April):
Actual: -3.7%
Forecast: -3.2%
Previous: 4.3% (revised from 3.4%)
Release Time: 10:00 AM ET
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders Revised (April):
Actual: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.2%
Release Time: 10:00 AM ET
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Revised (April):
Actual: -6.3%
Forecast: -6.3%
Previous: -6.3%
Release Time: 10:00 AM ET
U.S. Redbook Year-over-Year:
Actual: 4.9%
Previous: 6.1%
Release Time: 8:55 AM ET
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate (May):
Year-over-Year Actual: 1.9%
Forecast: 2.0%
Previous: 2.2%
Month-over-Month Actual: 0.0%
Release Time: 5:00 AM ET
Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate (May):
Year-over-Year Actual: 2.3%
Forecast: 2.4%
Previous: 2.7%
Release Time: 5:00 AM ET
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (April):
Actual: 6.2%
Forecast: 6.2%
Previous: 6.2% (revised from 6.3%)
Release Time: 5:00 AM ET
Turkish CPI (May):
Month-over-Month Actual: 1.53%
Forecast: 2.0%
Previous: 3.00%
Year-over-Year Actual: 35.41%
Forecast: 36.0%
Previous: 37.86%
Release Time: 3:00 AM ET
Swiss CPI (May):
Month-over-Month Actual: 0.1%
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous: 0.0%
Year-over-Year Actual: -0.1%
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: 0.0%
Release Time: 2:30 AM ET
Italian Unemployment Rate (April):
Actual: 5.9%
Forecast: 6.1%
Previous: 6.0% (revised from 6.1%)
Release Time: 4:01 AM ET
French Budget Balance:
Actual: -€69.303 billion
Previous: -€47.03 billion
Release Time: 2:45 AM ET
Effective Federal Funds Rate (June 2nd):
Actual: 4.33%
Previous: 4.33%
Release Time: 9:00 AM ET
Key Market News and Commentary:
Federal Reserve Remarks:
Fed's Bostic emphasized caution regarding rate cuts, stating the need for more progress on lowering inflation before supporting any rate reduction.
He also mentioned not declaring victory on inflation yet, highlighting that core prices remain an issue.
European Central Bank (ECB) Activity:
The ECB settled €2.0025 trillion in public-sector bond purchases.
Corporate bond holdings under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reached €1.52 trillion as of last week.
OECD Economic Outlook:
The OECD downgraded its global GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, citing trade obstacles and uncertainty impacting confidence.
It stressed that easing trade tensions is a key global policy priority.
U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 was cut to 1.6% from 2.2%.
Oil Production:
OPEC increased oil output by 200,000 barrels per day, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day in May.
Market Movements:
U.S. stock futures edged lower as concerns about global economic growth resurfaced.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies.
Gold prices increased due to reduced risk appetite amid trade tensions.
Upcoming Events and Speeches:
Federal Reserve Officials Speaking:
Fed's Goolsbee at 12:45 PM ET.
Fed's Cook at 1:00 PM ET.
Fed's Logan at 3:30 PM ET.
Swiss National Bank (SNB):
SNB's Tschudin is scheduled to speak at 12:15 PM ET.
SEC Activity:
SEC Chair Atkins is tentatively set to testify at 10:00 AM ET.
International Developments:
China:
The Chinese Commerce Minister seeks increased coordination with Australia on trade.
The OECD trimmed China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 4.8%.
Japan:
Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda discussed monetary policy, emphasizing the need for balance in bond tapering.
The OECD reduced Japan's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.1%.
Europe:
The German Finance Minister highlighted the importance of cooperation with China and reforming international organizations to reflect global power shifts.
Market Sentiment Indicators:
Currency Strength (as of 3:03 AM ET):
Strongest Currencies: USD, CAD, GBP, EUR
Weaker Currencies: JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD
Market On Open (MOO) Imbalance (at 9:30 AM ET):
S&P 500: -$177 million
Nasdaq 100: -$73 million
Dow 30: -$48 million
Upcoming Earnings Estimates:
June 6th:
AVGO (Broadcom Inc.)
Earnings Release Time: 4:15 PM ET
Expected EPS: $1.56
Expected Revenue: $14.95 billion
Market Movers
📈 Fed Watch:
Fed's Bostic remains cautious on rate cuts, wants more inflation progress
Still sees "possible path" to one cut this year
Emphasizes patience given trade uncertainty
💶 ECB Implications:
Eurozone inflation dropping below 2% target strengthens case for Thursday rate cut
Markets pricing in 25bps cut as near certainty
🏦 Central Bank Speak:
BoJ's Ueda highlights tariff complexities for Japan's outlook
BoE's Bailey maintains "downward path" for rates despite uncertainty
Market Sentiment
Risk Factors:
Trade policy uncertainty weighing on global growth
OECD warns protectionism adding inflationary pressures
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on growth concerns
Positive Notes:
Strong US job openings data
European disinflation supporting dovish ECB stance
Japan 10-year bond auction saw highest demand since April 2024
Final Thoughts
The market narrative is crystallizing around a tale of two economies: the US showing labor market resilience but facing growth headwinds from trade policies, while Europe grapples with below-target inflation that's practically gift-wrapping a rate cut for the ECB this Thursday.
The OECD's growth downgrades aren't just numbers on a page - they're reflecting real business uncertainty that's already showing up in factory orders and investment decisions. Bostic's cautious Fed stance makes perfect sense in this environment; why rush into cuts when the economic picture is this murky?
Watch for Thursday's ECB decision and how markets react to what should be a dovish pivot. The divergence between Fed caution and ECB accommodation could drive some interesting currency moves. Also keep an eye on that AVGO earnings on June 6th - semiconductor demand will tell us a lot about the real economy beneath all this policy noise.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry