Today's Update 06-09-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Indicators:
US-China Trade Talks
Event: Trade talks between the US and China have commenced in London.
Objective: The US seeks assurances that China will ease limits on rare earth exports; in exchange, the US may remove certain export restrictions.
Comments:
White House Senior Adviser Hassett expects progress from the talks.
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasizes the importance of stable economic relations between China and the UK.
OPEC Oil Output
May Output Increase: OPEC oil output by five members increased by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd), less than the pledged 310,000 bpd.
Total OPEC Output: Rose by 150,000 bpd from April, reaching 26.75 million bpd.
China Rare Earth Exports
Regulation Status: China states that its regulation of rare earth exports is legal and not targeting specific nations.
Developments: Some rare earth export approvals have begun.
Economic Indicators
Japan Economy Watchers Survey (May)
Actual: 44.4
Forecast: 43.9
Previous: 42.6
Japan Q1 GDP (Final)
Revised QoQ: 0.0% (Forecast: -0.2%; Previous: -0.2%)
Revised QoQ Annualized: -0.2% (Forecast: -0.7%; Previous: -0.7%)
GDP Deflator YoY: 3.3% (Forecast: 3.3%; Previous: 3.2%)
Japan Q1 Business Spending
Actual QoQ: +1.1% (Forecast: +1.3%)
Japan Q1 Private Consumption
Actual QoQ: +0.1% (Forecast: 0.0%)
China Inflation Data (May)
CPI YoY: -0.1% (Forecast: -0.2%; Previous: -0.1%)
CPI MoM: -0.2% (Previous: +0.1%)
PPI YoY: -3.3% (Forecast: -3.2%; Previous: -2.7%)
New Zealand Q1 Manufacturing Sales
Volume: +2.4% QoQ (Previous: +1.1%)
ECB Officials' Remarks
Robert Holzmann, Olli Rehn, and François Villeroy de Galhau scheduled to speak, discussing monetary policy and economic outlook.
ECB’s Peter Kazimir:
Indicates that the ECB may be near the end of the easing cycle.
Notes downside risks to growth but cautions against neglecting upside inflation risks.
Emphasizes the need to keep all policy options open.
Market Movements
Asian Markets: Stocks rose ahead of US-China trade talks; Chinese shares in Hong Kong entered a bull market.
US Futures: S&P 500 futures held firm; the index is nearing all-time highs.
Currency Strength: Strongest to weakest – NZD, JPY, AUD, GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD, USD.
Energy Sector
Iraq Oil Pricing: Set July Basrah medium crude official selling prices for different regions.
Japan Energy Subsidies: Government considering measures in response to rising interest rates and energy costs.
Technology Sector
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang:
Stated that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will become fundamental infrastructure, akin to electricity.
Other Notable News
Japan’s Economic Outlook:
Prime Minister mentions the country is entering a phase of increasing interest rates.
Highlights potential impact on government debt financing costs.
European Defense Spending:
NATO plans a 400% increase in air and missile defense capabilities.
Iran Nuclear Talks:
Iran preparing a counter-offer to the US nuclear proposal.
IAEA Director-General urges efforts in talks.
Upcoming Events
US Wholesale Inventories and Sales (10:00)
Wholesale Inventories MoM Rev.
Wholesale Sales MoM
Trump's Scheduled Speech
Event: Invest America Roundtable
Time: 14:00
Financial Market Rates
Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (June 6), unchanged from June 5.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate: 4.29% (June 6), unchanged from June 5.
⚡ Market Movers:
NVIDIA's Huang: "AI will be infrastructure, like electricity"
OPEC May Output: Rose 150,000 bpd to 26.75 million bpd
UK Government: £1.25 billion cost for policy changes
🎯 Upcoming Events:
Trump speaks at Invest America Roundtable (2 PM ET)
Multiple ECB officials speaking throughout the day
UK unemployment data tomorrow
Final Thoughts
The market is sitting at a fascinating inflection point. We've got the S&P kissing those record highs again while everyone's eyes are glued to London where US and Chinese negotiators are hammering out what could be the next chapter in global trade relations.
What's particularly interesting is the dollar weakness across the board - that's telling us traders are pricing in some optimism about these talks. The fact that Chinese equities are roaring into bull market territory while US futures hold steady suggests we might be seeing a "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario if these negotiations bear fruit.
Keep your radar tuned to any headlines coming out of London today. If we get positive vibes on rare earth exports and trade restrictions, we could see a nice risk-on rally. But remember, we're still in that delicate dance between growth optimism and inflation concerns - those Treasury yields will be your canary in the coal mine.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry