Today's Update 06-11-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Data Releases:
United States:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - May:
CPI YoY: Actual 2.4% (Forecast 2.4%, Previous 2.3%)
CPI MoM: Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2%)
Core CPI YoY: Actual 2.8% (Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%)
Core CPI MoM: Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%)
MBA Mortgage Applications (June 11):
Applications Index: Actual 12.5% (Previous -3.9%)
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.93% (Previous 6.92%)
Canada:
Building Permits MoM:
Actual -6.6% (Forecast 2%, Previous -4.1%)
Japan:
Producer Price Index (PPI) - May:
PPI YoY: Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.5%, Previous 4.0%)
PPI MoM: Actual -0.2% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2%)
Key Market News:
US-China Trade Talks:
Trade Agreement Progress: President Trump announced that a deal with China is done, pending final approval with President Xi.
Tariffs:
The US will maintain a 10% baseline tariff and a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products from China.
The total effective tariff rate will be 55% on Chinese goods.
China will open its market to US trade and supply rare earths and magnets upfront.
Market Reactions:
US Index Futures: Slipped slightly after the announcement of the US-China trade talks outcome.
Treasury Yields: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.49% ahead of the inflation report.
Federal Reserve Speculations:
Traders are nearly pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with increased bets on a rate cut starting in September following the CPI data.
Tesla (TSLA):
Shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading after Elon Musk expressed regret over his recent social media comments about President Trump.
Upcoming Earnings Releases:
June 11th:
Oracle Corporation (ORCL):
Earnings Release Time: 16:05 ET
Expected EPS: $1.64
Expected Revenue: $15.58 billion
June 12th:
Adobe Inc. (ADBE):
Earnings Release Time: 16:05 ET
Expected EPS: $4.97
Expected Revenue: $5.79 billion
Other Notable Developments:
UK Economic Announcements:
Chancellor Reeves:
Announced an additional £10 billion for housing investments.
Allocated £2 billion towards the government's AI action plan.
Defense spending to increase by £11 billion, reaching 2.6% of GDP by April 2027.
Investment of £30 billion committed to a nuclear-powered future, including £14 billion for Sizewell C nuclear plant.
European Central Bank (ECB):
Released a wage tracker indicating 3.4% negotiated wage growth expected in 2025.
ECB and the People's Bank of China signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation, updating the previous 2008 agreement.
ECB President Lagarde discussed that currency fluctuations could enhance the euro's international role.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA):
Announced plans to establish and expand AI technology centers in Europe, including Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Finland.
Plans to build the world's first industrial AI cloud in Europe, with more details to be released on Friday.
Germany-based AI factory to feature 10,000 GPUs.
20 more AI factories are planned for Europe.
Iran Nuclear Deal:
Iranian officials stated that a nuclear deal is "within reach" and can be achieved rapidly.
🌍 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
UK Spending Review:
£30B nuclear commitment
Defense spending to reach 2.6% of GDP by April 2027
£11B defense increase announced
China Positioning:
Yuan fixing at strongest level since April
"No winners in trade war" messaging
PBOC maintaining 1.4% reverse repo rate
Final Thoughts
The market is caught between two powerful forces today. On one hand, we have encouraging inflation data that's giving the Fed more room to cut rates, with core CPI coming in significantly below expectations. This should be bullish for risk assets.
However, the US-China trade announcement, while positive in tone, lacks concrete details. Trump's claim of a "done deal" subject to Xi's approval feels more like negotiating theater than substance. The 55% vs 10% tariff split sounds dramatic, but we need clarity on implementation timelines and scope.
What's particularly interesting is the muted market response to what should be positive news. Futures are down despite both the trade framework and softer inflation data. This suggests investors are either skeptical of the trade deal's durability or are taking profits near all-time highs.
The real test comes with today's Oracle earnings and tomorrow's EIA inventory data. With oil markets already jittery about supply dynamics and tech stocks at stretched valuations, any disappointment could trigger a broader pullback.
My take? Stay cautious here. The fundamentals are improving, but market positioning feels stretched. Use any weakness as an opportunity to add quality names rather than chasing momentum.
Stay sharp! 📈
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry