#17 Weekly Update - Odyssey +259% ! Gulf of America Impact or Fluff?
A look at Odyssey Marine Exploration recent rally and deep-sea exploration
Hi and welcome back for a Quant data driven analysis. [Full Disclaimer]
Why the sudden rally of Odyssey Marine Exploration? I previously covered deep-sea exploration at length and why the next 4 years might be game changer.
ICYMI:
Catalysts, Technical Signals, and Risk Assessment
So I've been down a rabbit hole with Odyssey Marine Exploration for the past few weeks. This thing fascinates me – it's like watching several market forces collide in real-time. The stock went absolutely bonkers in early April, shooting up over 250%, and there's a ton to unpack here.
The Rally: What the Hell Just Happened?
First, let's talk price action, because. Odyssey spent months languishing below fifty cents, looking pretty much dead. Then suddenly – BOOM – it explodes to over $2. I've seen enough pump-and-dumps to be skeptical of these moves, but this one has actual substance behind it.
The volume tells the real story here. We saw multiple days with 5-10x normal volume, which suggests this isn't just Reddit traders playing hot potato. There's institutional money moving in. The stock broke through its 200-day moving average for the first time since September, which is kind of a big deal technically. More on this below.
Let's dive in and make some smart moves! 💰🚀
📅Week's Calendar April 28-03, 2025
High Impact Events
Tuesday Apr 29
Goods Trade Balance (Mar): Forecast -146, Prior -147.91
JOLTs Job Openings (Mar): Forecast 7.5%, Prior 7.568%
Wednesday Apr 30
ADP Employment Change (Apr): Forecast 130K, Prior 155K
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1): Forecast 0.4%, Prior 2.4%
Core PCE Price Index YoY (Mar): Forecast 2.5%, Prior 2.8%
Personal Income MoM (Mar): Forecast 0.4%, Prior 0.6%
Thursday May 1
Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/26): Forecast 225K, Prior 222K
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Forecast 50.7%, Prior 50.2%
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Forecast 47.2%, Prior 49%
Friday May 2
Unemployment Rate (Apr): Forecast 8%, Prior 7.9%
Non Farm Payrolls (Apr): Forecast 130K, Prior 228K
Key Economic Data
Monday Apr 28
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr): Forecast -15%, Prior -16.3%
Tuesday Apr 29
CB Consumer Confidence (Apr): Forecast 88.5%, Prior 92.9%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): Forecast -2.5%, Prior -2.5%
Wednesday Apr 30
Chicago PMI (Apr): Forecast 45.9%, Prior 47.6%
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Prior 0.244%
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Prior -4.476%
Market Positioning (Friday)
CFTC Gold Speculative net positions: Prior 175.4
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative positions: Prior 37.7%
CFTC Crude Oil speculative positions: Prior 171
CFTC S&P 500 speculative positions: Prior -75.9%
This week features critical economic indicators including GDP, employment data, and manufacturing indices that could significantly impact market sentiment.
Last Week Recap:
In-Short
Global Economic Outlook
Global GDP growth is projected at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, below the historical average of 3.7% (2000-2019) according to the IMF's January 2025 World Economic Outlook. The economic landscape shows diverging paths across regions, with advanced economies expected to see modest improvement while emerging markets face a slight slowdown.
US Market Projections
S&P Global forecasts US real GDP growth will cool to 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 as economic momentum loses steam amid shifting policies. For the S&P 500, major Wall Street firms are projecting continued but more moderate gains, with most forecasts clustering around 6,500 by year-end 2025 representing roughly an 8-10% gain from late 2024 levels.
International Markets
Emerging markets are expected to grow at a slower 3.4% in 2025, down from 4.1% in 2024 according to J.P. Morgan Research. China's growth is projected to moderate to 4.5% as structural challenges in the property sector and demographics constrain activity despite policy support. India remains a bright spot with expected 6.4% growth, driven by public investment and strong domestic demand.
Market Catalysts & Risks
Several factors could influence 2025 performance:
Earnings Growth: S&P 500 earnings per share are forecast to grow 11% in 2025 according to Goldman Sachs projections, potentially supporting market valuations
Interest Rates: Central banks will likely maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts as inflation remains sticky
Sector Rotation: Small-cap stocks may finally outperform after a decade of underperformance relative to large caps
Geopolitical Tensions: Trade policy uncertainty and tariffs may drive increased market volatility
Insider Activity - Annalists Upgrades, Downgrades, Price Targets Change.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.