Today's Update 04-25-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Data Releases:
1. Canadian Retail Sales (February 2025):
Retail Sales MoM:
Actual: -0.4%
Forecast: -0.4%
Previous: -0.6%
Core Retail Sales MoM:
Actual: 0.5%
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: 0.2%
2. UK Retail Sales (April 25):
Retail Sales MoM:
Actual: 0.4%
Forecast: -0.4%
Previous: 1.0%
Retail Sales YoY:
Actual: 2.6%
Forecast: 1.8%
Previous: 2.2%
Core Retail Sales MoM:
Actual: 0.5%
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: 1.0%
Core Retail Sales YoY:
Actual: 3.3%
Forecast: 2.0%
Previous: 2.2%
3. Effective Federal Funds Rate:
April 24th: 4.33%
April 23rd: 4.33%
4. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR):
April 24th: 4.29%
April 23rd: 4.28%
Corporate Earnings:
1. AbbVie Q1 2025 Earnings ($ABBV):
Adjusted EPS: $2.46 (Estimate: $2.39)
Net Revenue: $13.34 billion (Estimate: $12.92 billion)
Humira Revenue: $1.12 billion (Estimate: $1.32 billion)
Skyrizi Revenue: $3.43 billion (Estimate: $3.2 billion)
Rinvoq Revenue: $1.72 billion (Estimate: $1.58 billion)
Full-Year Adjusted EPS Guidance: Raised to $12.09 - $12.29 (Previous: $11.99 - $12.19)
Central Bank Statements and Economic Outlook:
1. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde:
Interest Rates & Inflation:
Not pre-committing to a specific rate path.
The disinflation process is well on track.
Inflation expected to hover around the 2% target.
Economic Risks:
Ongoing escalation of trade tensions complicates the global inflation outlook.
Downside risks to economic growth have increased.
Euro area is building resilience against global shocks.
Labour Market:
Labour market remains resilient.
Global Inflation:
Projected to gradually decline.
2. People's Bank of China (PBOC):
PBOC's Pan Gongsheng:
China's economy continues a rebounding trend and has had a good beginning.
Domestic demand is expanding.
Monetary policy to be moderately loose.
Encourages collaboration to maintain global economic stability.
Chinese Politburo Statements:
Focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations.
Support enterprises affected by tariffs.
Create new policy financial tools.
International Trade and Relations:
1. United States:
President Trump's Statements:
Trade deals expected in the next three to four weeks.
Very close to a deal with Japan.
Spoke with China's President Xi Jinping.
Russia and Ukraine are making progress.
Trade deals are going well.
Open to meeting Iran's President or Supreme Leader.
Signals support for a ban on congressional stock trading.
Would consider raising taxes on the wealthy.
Not worried during April bond market stress.
Administration Actions:
Pressuring Europe to reject an AI rulebook that would impose stricter standards on AI developers.
2. China:
Diplomatic Statements:
Chinese Embassy states that China and the U.S. are not currently in talks on tariffs.
Foreign Ministry confirms no consultations or negotiations on tariffs with the U.S.
Trade Measures:
Considering suspending additional tariffs on some U.S. imports, such as medical equipment and industrial chemicals.
Financial Ratings and Forecasts:
Fitch Ratings:
U.S. and Europe 2025 leveraged finance default rate forecasts revised upward.
Market Indicators:
1. Currency Strength (As of 03:02 April 25):
Strongest to Weakest:
USD, AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD, EUR, CHF, JPY
2. Japanese Yen:
Yen weakened by 0.4% to 143.19 per U.S. dollar amid reports that China is considering excluding certain U.S. goods from tariffs.
Miscellaneous:
IMF Asia-Pacific Outlook:
IMF APAC Director Krishna Srinivasan indicates that Asia can ease monetary policy amid trade war risks.
Notes significant downside risks to revised growth forecasts.
European Central Bank’s Robert Holzmann:
Next policy steps are completely open.
Economic scars may persist even if tariffs are lowered.
Net impact of tariffs so far is rather disinflationary.
Final Thoughts:
Markets are navigating conflicting signals on US-China trade relations, with Trump claiming talks are progressing while Chinese officials deny any negotiations. This uncertainty is creating volatility despite generally positive corporate earnings. The Federal Reserve's increasingly dovish tone suggests rate cuts may come sooner than previously expected, providing potential support for markets. However, escalating trade tensions remain a significant downside risk that could disrupt the global economic outlook. Investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data, particularly inflation metrics, which will heavily influence Fed policy decisions in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry