Today's Update 04-21-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Data
US Leading Index Change MoM for March 2025:
Actual: -0.7%
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: -0.3%
Economic Events and Speeches:
ECB's Centeno spoke.
ECB's Knot scheduled to speak.
ECB President Lagarde scheduled to speak on CNBC.
Fed's Jefferson scheduled to speak.
Fed's Harker scheduled to speak.
Fed's Goolsbee made remarks:
Believes rates will be lower in 12-18 months.
Discussed the impact of tariffs on productivity and the macroeconomy.
Emphasized the importance of steady monetary policy.
Corporate Earnings Reports:
3M Q1 2025 Earnings
GE Q1 2025 Earnings
Verizon Q1 2025 Earnings
Lockheed Martin Q1 2025 Earnings
GE Earnings Call
Verizon Earnings Call
3M Earnings Call
US Treasury Auctions:
6-Month Bill High Yield: Previous 4.060%
6-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover: Previous 2.800
3-Month Bill High Yield: Previous 4.225%
3-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover: Previous 2.960
Canadian Economic Data:
Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM:
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.4%
Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) MoM:
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous: 0.3%
PPI YoY: Previous 4.9%
India's Trade Measures:
India imposes a 12% temporary tariff on certain steel imports for 200 days starting April 21st.
Global Political Updates:
Russian President Putin commented on the ceasefire and relations with Ukraine, expressing a positive attitude toward peace initiatives but noting challenges.
Statements from Former President Trump:
Urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates immediately to prevent a potential slowing of the economy.
Criticized Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
Market Data:
Effective Fed Funds Rate:
April 18th: 4.33%
Unchanged from April 17th.
Market on Open (MOO) Imbalance at 9:30:
S&P 500: -$263 million
Nasdaq 100: +$0 million
Dow 30: -$34 million
MAG 7: +$3 million
Citi's Federal Reserve Predictions:
Expects the Fed to deliver the next interest rate cut in June (previously forecasted for May).
Maintains a forecast of 125 basis points in rate cuts for 2025.
Trump Demands Rate Cuts: Former President Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts, referring to Fed Chair Powell as "Mr. Too Late" and claiming "there is virtually no inflation." This statement caused weakness in US stock indexes and the dollar.
Economic Indicators Worsen: The US Leading Index fell 0.7% in March, worse than the forecasted 0.5% decline, suggesting potential economic slowdown.
Fed Officials Respond: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated he still believes rates will be lower in 12-18 months but emphasized the importance of the Fed maintaining independence.
Monetary Policy Shift: Citi has pushed back its forecast for the Fed's first rate cut from May to June, while maintaining expectations for 125 basis points of cuts in 2025.
Trade Tensions: India imposed a 12% temporary tariff on some steel imports for 200 days starting April 21st.
Final Thoughts:
Market sentiment appears increasingly cautious as economic indicators show signs of deterioration while political pressure on the Federal Reserve intensifies. Trump's direct criticism of Powell and demands for immediate rate cuts represent an unusual challenge to Fed independence that could create additional market volatility. The worse-than-expected Leading Index data reinforces concerns about economic momentum, potentially accelerating the timeline for monetary easing despite Fed officials' cautious rhetoric. Investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data and Fed communications for signals about the timing and pace of potential rate cuts, while remaining alert to geopolitical developments that could further impact market stability.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry