#13 Weekly Update - Bear Trend In - EU Caved In - Valuation Updated Levels
Long-term opportunities based on fair value quant analysis update.
Hi and welcome back for a Quant data driven analysis. [Full Disclaimer]
ICYMI:
EU Plans Concessions for Trump After Reciprocal Tariffs Hit
The European Union is actively drafting a "term sheet" of concessions to offer the Trump administration in what looks like a desperate bid to secure a partial rollback of US tariffs. This comes in direct response to Trump's 25% tariff on all auto imports, which is set to take effect on April 2, and the already-implemented 25% tariff on steel and aluminum that went live on March 12.
The market has been whipsawed by these developments. Looking at the trading screens today is like watching a slow-motion car crash. The Dow tanked by almost 2%, S&P dropped a clean 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq got absolutely hammered, down nearly 3%. Every bounce attempt throughout the day just got sold into - classic bear market behavior. We're now five weeks deep in the red out of the last six for both the S&P and Nasdaq.
What's actually kind of interesting is watching the EU completely fold their hand. They had this tough-sounding package of retaliatory duties worth €26 billion targeting politically sensitive American exports - think Kentucky bourbon and Wisconsin dairy. But now they've blinked. On March 20, they quietly delayed implementation, mumbling something about finding a "mutually agreeable solution." The real story? Trump threatened to slap 200% tariffs on European wines and liquor, and suddenly Brussels got very interested in negotiating.
Nobody knows exactly what concessions they're cooking up, but my sources in the industry suggest it's going to be sector-specific deals rather than broad tariff cuts. European carmakers are absolutely panicking behind the scenes. They understand the math - a 25% tariff on BMWs and Mercedes means their American business essentially disappears overnight.
Trade wars are rarely won - they're just survived. And right now, Europe is in survival mode.
Let's dive in and make some smart moves! 💰🚀
📅Week's Calendar March/April 31-06, 2025
High-Impact Events for the Week
Tuesday (Apr 1): S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 1:45pm, ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 2:00pm, JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) at 2:00pm
Wednesday (Apr 2): ADP Employment Change (Mar) at 12:15pm
Thursday (Apr 3): Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/29), Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar/22), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Mar/29), S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) at 1:45pm, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 2:00pm, ISM Services PMI (Mar) at 2:00pm
Friday (Apr 4): Unemployment Rate (Mar) at 12:30pm, Non Farm Payrolls (Mar) at 12:30pm, Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Mar) at 12:30pm, Fed Chair Powell Speech at 3:25pm
Notable Data Points:
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI forecast at 49.8% vs previous 52.7%
ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast at 50.3% vs previous 50.3%
JOLTs Job Openings forecast at 7.68% vs previous 7.74%
ADP Employment Change forecast at 120 vs previous 77
Initial Jobless Claims forecast at 225 vs previous 224
S&P Global Services PMI forecast at 54.3% vs previous 51%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI forecast at 53% vs previous 53.5%
ISM Services PMI forecast at 53% vs previous 53.5%
Unemployment Rate forecast at 8.1% vs previous 8%
Non Farm Payrolls forecast at 128 vs previous 151
The week features several Fed speeches, with officials Kugler, Jefferson, Cook, Powell, Barr, and Waller all scheduled to speak throughout the week.
Critical Economic Data and Market-Moving Events
Economic events to watch this week:
Short Term Update - Newest Additions
Movements and Shifts
Recent market activity shifts across various sectors:
Top Buy Signals
NVDA 0.00%↑ 142.67% position change, 66 buys at $26.40m
AMZN 0.00%↑ 138.90% position change, 64 buys at $25.50m
AAPL 0.00%↑ 134.56% position change, 61 buys at $24.50m
Notable Sells
TSLA 0.00%↑ -58.90% position drop, 36 sales at $14.30m
ADBE 0.00%↑ -56.78% position decrease, 33 sales at $13.20m
META 0.00%↑ -54.23% position reduction, 28 sales at $11.20m
Other Strategic Movements
JPM 0.00%↑ 132.45% position change, 59 buys at $23.50m
GOOGL 0.00%↑ 128.45% position change, 56 buys at $22.40m
PEP 0.00%↑ 126.78% position change, 54 buys at $21.40m
Last Week Recap:
In-Short
As Tariff War Escalates
The market data is telling a clear story: investors are running scared. Today's charts show a sea of red across all major indexes. The decliners-to-advancers ratio is extremely concerning, with 5,124 stocks declining versus just 1,154 advancing. Four times as many stocks are down as up - that's not normal market behavior, it's a stampede for the exits.
Looking at the 52-week low list is even more revealing. Wolfspeed has collapsed 51.86% from its 52-week high. Blaze Holdings is down 17.09%. Milestone Pharmaceuticals has cratered 60.89%. These aren't small pullbacks; they're existential threats to these companies.
The most telling data point is the net inflow chart showing NASDAQ experiencing a $2.05 billion outflow today alone. Capital is fleeing U.S. tech at an alarming rate, and it's heading for safer havens.
What we're witnessing is the market finally pricing in not just a trade war, but the broader economic impact of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and its aggressive cuts to federal spending.
🔐Premium Member only.🔐
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.