Today's Update 03-24-2025
Key Points and Metrics
key points and metrics:
Market Overview:
U.S. Stock Futures: U.S. stock futures rallied, with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index rising, as traders bought beaten-down tech stocks.
U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar strengthened following recent economic data releases.
Treasury Yields: U.S. Treasury yields increased amid market optimism.
Economic Data Releases:
United States:
S&P Global PMI (March Flash Estimates):
Services PMI:
Actual: 54.3
Forecast: 51.0
Previous: 51.0
Manufacturing PMI:
Actual: 49.8
Forecast: 51.7
Previous: 52.7
Composite PMI:
Actual: 53.5
Forecast: 50.9
Previous: 51.6
Insights:
Input price inflation accelerated sharply, especially in manufacturing, reaching a near two-year high, often attributed to the impact of tariff policies.
Competition limited the pass-through of higher costs to selling prices.
Chicago National Activity Index (February Report):
Actual: 0.18
Forecast: -0.17
Previous: -0.03
Effective Federal Funds Rate:
March 21: 4.33%
March 20: 4.33%
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR):
March 21: 4.30%
March 20: 4.29%
Canada:
Manufacturing Sales (February Flash Estimate):
Estimate: Decreased by 0.2% from the previous month.
Upcoming Economic Events (March 25):
Sweden:
Producer Price Index (PPI) Year-over-Year:
Previous: 3.5%
Producer Price Index (PPI) Month-over-Month:
Previous: 1.7%
Hong Kong:
Imports:
Forecast: 0.7%
Previous: 0.5%
Exports:
Forecast: 1.7%
Previous: 0.1%
Germany:
IFO Business Climate Index:
Forecast: 86.7
Previous: 85.2
IFO Current Conditions Index:
Forecast: 85.5
Previous: 85.0
IFO Expectations Index:
Forecast: 87.3
Previous: 85.4
5-Year Bobl Yield:
Previous: 2.15%
5-Year Bobl Bid-to-Cover Ratio:
Previous: 1.7
United States:
Redbook Year-over-Year:
Previous: 5.2%
Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Year-over-Year:
Forecast: 4.55%
Previous: 4.5%
House Price Index Year-over-Year:
Previous: 4.7%
House Price Index Month-over-Month:
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.4%
Key Speeches:
March 24:
01:50 PM: Federal Reserve's Williams Speaks
05:45 PM: Federal Reserve's Bostic Speaks
March 25:
09:00 AM: European Central Bank's (ECB) Kazimir Speaks
10:00 AM: ECB's Holzmann Speaks
10:50 AM: ECB's Vujcic Speaks
07:00 PM: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes Released
FINAL THOUGHTS
The divergence between manufacturing and services sectors highlights the uneven nature of the current economic landscape. While services continue to show robust growth, manufacturing has slipped into contraction territory, potentially signaling sector-specific challenges.
The strong market reaction suggests investors are finding relief in reports that Trump's tariff plans may be more targeted than initially feared, reducing concerns about an all-out trade war. However, the PMI report's mention of tariff-related input price inflation indicates that even targeted tariffs could contribute to inflationary pressures. With several Fed speakers scheduled for today (Bostic, Barr, Williams), markets will be closely watching for any shifts in monetary policy outlook in response to these mixed economic signals.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry