Today's Update 03-25-2025

Key Points and Metrics

key points and metrics:

U.S. Economic Indicators

• Consumer Confidence

  • March CB Consumer Confidence Index: Actual 92.9, Forecast 94, Previous 98.3 (Revised to 100.1)

    • Indicates a decrease in consumer confidence, suggesting consumers are less optimistic about economic conditions.

• New Home Sales

  • February New Home Sales (Units): Actual 0.676 million, Forecast 0.68 million, Previous 0.657 million (Revised to 0.664 million)

    • Shows a slight increase in new home sales, exceeding the previous month's figures.

  • New Home Sales Change MoM: Actual 1.8%, Forecast 3.5%, Previous -10.5%

    • Indicates modest growth month-over-month, but below expectations.

• House Price Index

  • January House Price Index MoM: Actual 0.2%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%

    • Suggests a continued, but slowing, increase in house prices.

  • House Price Index YoY: Actual 4.8%, Previous 4.7% (Revised to 4.8%)

    • Year-over-year growth in house prices remains steady.

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

  • March Composite Index: Actual -4, Forecast 1, Previous 6

    • Indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity in the Richmond area, contrary to growth expectations.

• Inflation Expectations

  • Average 12-month Inflation Expectations: Increased from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March

    • Consumers are expecting higher inflation in the near term, reflecting concerns over rising prices.

---

European Economic Indicators

• German IFO Business Climate

  • Business Climate Index: Actual 86.7, Forecast 86.7, Previous 85.3 (Revised from 85.2)

    • Reflects an improvement in business sentiment in Germany.

  • Current Conditions Index: Actual 85.7, Forecast 85.5, Previous 85.0

    • Suggests businesses perceive current conditions more positively.

  • Expectations Index: Actual 87.7, Forecast 87.3, Previous 85.6 (Revised from 85.4)

    • Indicates increased optimism about future business conditions.

• Swedish Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • February PPI YoY: Actual 3.4%, Previous 3.5%

    • Shows a slight decrease in producer price inflation year-over-year.

  • PPI MoM: Actual -0.1%, Previous 1.7%

    • Indicates a marginal decrease in producer prices month-over-month.

---

Other Notable Developments

• Tariff and Trade News

  • Reports suggest that President Trump is considering new tariffs, potentially up to 50%, impacting global trade dynamics.

  • India and the U.S. are engaged in discussions regarding tariff reductions and reciprocal trade agreements.

• Energy Sector

  • Russia's Oil Refining Capacity

    • April capacity set at 2.9 million tons, with March revised up to 3.6 million tons.

  • U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change

    • Previous change was an increase of 4.593 million barrels.

• Central Bank Communications

  • European Central Bank (ECB) Officials

    • Kazimir: Open to discussing a rate cut or pause in April; emphasizes the importance of services inflation.

    • Müller: Notes that tariffs may lead to faster inflation in the short term and does not rule out a pause in rate adjustments.

• U.S. Intelligence Reports

  • Express concerns over:

    • China's Strategic Competitiveness

      • Emphasizes China's position as a capable strategic competitor.

    • Russia-Ukraine Conflict

      • Indicates ongoing strategic risks and potential for unintended escalation.

    • Cybersecurity Threats

      • Highlights China as the most active and persistent cyber threat to the U.S.

• Market Reactions

  • U.S. Stock Futures

    • Show signs of stalling due to tariff concerns and potential changes in interest rate expectations.

  • Commodity Prices

    • Copper Futures: Hit a record high as traders anticipate the impact of tariffs.

    • Gold Prices: Slight increase, hovering near recent highs.

---

Key Metrics Summary

• Currencies

  • Strongest: JPY, AUD, USD

  • Moderate Strength: GBP, EUR, CAD

  • Weakest: CHF, NZD

• Other Indicators

  • Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 46/100 (Fear)

  • Fear and Greed Index: 29/100 (Fear)

    • Both indexes suggest market participants are cautious.

---

Final Thoughts:

Markets are showing resilience despite mixed economic signals, with stocks extending their recovery from recent selloffs. The improved German business sentiment suggests potential stabilization in European economic outlook. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments between the US, Russia, and Ukraine could have significant implications for energy markets. US intelligence agencies continue to identify China as the primary strategic competitor to the US, highlighting ongoing tensions. The decline in US consumer confidence bears watching as a potential early warning sign for consumer spending, though housing data remains relatively strong. Investors should monitor upcoming economic releases and Fed commentary for further direction on interest rate policy.

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.

---

Like and share. It helps the publication to continue to grow.

Remember what goes up must come down (eventually)
Stay safe and invest wisely and this is in no mean financial advice. [Full Disclaimer]

Thank you for supporting this newsletter. It will keep improving.

Harry