39 Companies - Mid-Term Bear Trend Strategy -Valuation Guide Update Levels
Long-term investment opportunities based on fair value quant analysis. (partial dollar-cost averaging).
Hi and welcome back for a Quant data driven analysis. [Full Disclaimer]
A Blueprint for Down Trend
This Valuation Table serves as my strategic roadmap during the current mid-term bear trend. Rather than fearing market volatility, I've identified opportunities to systematically build positions in quality companies at attractive valuations.
The table presents my analysis of fair value versus current prices showing which stocks are significantly undervalued (Above/Below Fair-Price column) and which are trading at premiums.
Key strategic elements: (Detailed table at the end - Members Only)
Fair-Price: My calculated intrinsic value based on comprehensive financial quant analysis.
Partial dollar-cost averaging TP: The price point where I recommend beginning to accumulate partial positions.
Good/Excellent Buying-Price: Optimal entry points for substantial long-term positions with 1-5 year horizons.
During this bear market, I focus on companies trading well below fair value, particularly those approaching their "Excellent" levels. Companies like AMD, PayPal, and Warner Bros. Discovery show particularly compelling value propositions, trading significantly below my fair price estimates.
This methodical, value-based approach removes emotion from investing decisions and transforms market downturns into strategic buying opportunities. As prices fluctuate, use this guide to make confident, data-driven investment decisions.
Market Mayhem: Shifts, Trade Tensions, and Volatility
The dollar's recent trajectory is perhaps the most compelling thing right now. I've touched on this topic in previous newsletters but haven't tackled it head-on since these trade tensions began intensifying. Partly because events have been unfolding at breakneck speed, but also because when I chat with fellow market watchers, we seem to be examining different fragments of the same complex reality - like the proverbial blind men describing an elephant based on the part they're touching. And let's be honest, because discussing reserve currency dynamics has become incredibly divisive.
Markets have moved enough now that certain patterns are becoming clear, and you need to understand how I'm interpreting these movements. My confidence level in this analysis: moderate at best.
A Reserve Currency Acting Against Type
Something genuinely strange is happening with America's dollar. After hitting significant lows against comparative benchmarks in late September followed by a brief recovery, we witnessed the announcement of potential tariffs on key economic partners. Here's the puzzling part: conventional market wisdom lead us to think such assertive economic positioning would strengthen a nation's currency. Yet we're seeing precisely the opposite phenomenon.
The benchmark dollar dropped an astonishing 4% in just six days - a seismic shift for a major global currency. This raises fundamental questions about its long-term status as the world's primary exchange medium. Without America's economic dominance, there's little inherent reason why its currency should command such persistent worldwide demand.
Should this downward momentum continue through next weeks, we might see it crash through that critical September floor of 100 on the index. From there, further decline seems plausible.
The single consistent theme I've hammered to anyone willing to listen isn't about directional predictions - it's about certainty of unpredictability. Those who positioned themselves for heightened market swings this year have reaped substantial rewards. This pattern shows no signs of stopping, and current currency behavior only reinforces this perspective.
Contradictory Market Signals
What's particularly interesting is how various asset classes are sending conflicting messages:
Major stock indices are retreating as though trade tensions will worsen
Government bonds are gaining as though inflationary pressures are easing
Oil prices are declining as though economic contraction looms
Gold and silver are climbing as though inflationary forces are accelerating
Crypto assets are suffering, indicating risk aversion
Tech stocks have experienced significant declines
We're facing a confusing mixture of conflicting indicators that defies straightforward interpretation. The movements that seem most logical to me are the trajectories of precious metals and oil. But examining currencies introduces even greater complexity.
The World's Currencies in Brawl
From my perspective, if dollar weakness persists into next weeks, I'll begin establishing positions against it. The key question becomes: which alternative currencies make sense as counter-positions?