#6 Weekly Update - More Tariff! +233% Gainers - MGO 1.3 Billion Volume! 5 Undervalued stocks
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Impact of Trump's Tariffs: A Market Survival Guide
Tariffs as Tools—and Their Risks
US imposes new tariffs—25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China. Past tariffs (2017-2021) saw S&P 500 gain 70%, but economists fear inflation and supply chain shocks now. The U.S. uses its trade power: Canada/Mexico send 80% of exports here, China’s U.S. dependence fell to 37% of GDP. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum threatens tariffs on U.S. energy—Midwest gas prices may jump$0.50/gallon.
Mid-Term Impact: Growth vs. Inflation
Tariffs tax households. The Tax Foundation claims$800/year per home. CFR forecasts 1.76% GDP loss by 2026. Hotspots:
Autos: 25% tariffs add $3,000 to car prices. Tesla and Toyota’s Mexican plants face strain.
Energy: Canada sends 70% of U.S. crude—tariffs risk refinery margins and diesel hikes.
Food: Mexico supplies 60% of U.S. vegetables. Avocado prices may surge 15-20%.
Market Snapshot: Hope vs. Risk
Markets stay bullish. As of February 9, 2025:
S&P 500: +4% YTD (utilities lead).
Nasdaq: +6% (AI offsets tariffs).
Russell 2000: Flat (small caps fear costs).
Sector Movers:
Winners: Steelmakers (Nucor +12%), farm gear (Deere +8%).
Losers: Auto parts (Lear Corp -9%), retailers (Target -5%).
This Week’s Triggers
Stockpiling: 40% of consumers hoard staples (UC Berkeley). Firms shift to Vietnam/India suppliers.
Currency Wars: Peso down 30%, yuan down 15% since April. Weak currencies ease tariff pain but spark inflation.
Policy Risk: 30-day tariff pause on Canada/Mexico depends on migration talks. Talks fail, markets shake.
Next Week’s Catalysts
Feb 12: U.S.-Mexico talks restart. Track Kansas City Southern Rail (KSU).
Feb 14: CPI due. Core inflation may hit 3.4%.
Feb 15: Caterpillar (CAT) and 3M (MMM) report earnings. Tariff costs will dominate.
Final Call: Tariffs hurt long-term. Diversify. Buy TIPS, commodities. Warren Buffett warns, “When the tide goes out, you see who’s swimming naked.” Trim supply chain risks.
Keeping an eye on Texas’ semiconductor exports—Mexico buys 70% of New Mexico’s tech components. A trade war here could ripple through Apple and Dell’s supply chains.
Short Term Update - Newest Additions
Movements and Shifts
Recent market activity reveals compelling shifts across various sectors:
Most Active Tech Trades
NVDA 0.00%↑ : Leading with 167.34% position surge, 78 buys, $31.20M value at 0.687 weight
MSFT 0.00%↑ : Strong 162.78% position gain, 73 buys, $29.40M traded at 0.645 weight
CRWD 0.00%↑ : Notable 158.90% position growth, 67 buys, $26.90M value at 0.589 weight
Significant Moves
AAPL 0.00%↑ : 154.23% position gain, 74 buys, $29.80M value
MELI 0.00%↑ : 144.23% position increase, 58 buys, $23.40M value
SHOP 0.00%↑ : 142.45% position climb, 61 buys, $24.30M value
ICYMI:
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Last Week:
The upcoming earnings week features a diverse lineup of companies across technology, healthcare, energy, and financial sectors. These announcements will likely shape market sentiment and drive sector-specific movements. Below is a detailed analysis of key companies reporting earnings, their potential impact on the market, and relevant metrics to watch.
Key Earnings Highlights
Monday:
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX):
Metrics to Watch: Profit margins (currently over 40%), pipeline progress in CRISPR-based treatments, and diversification efforts.
Forecast Impact: Strong results could boost biotech stocks. Vertex’s low debt ($946M) and cash reserves ($7B) provide a solid foundation for acquisitions or R&D expansion. A positive report may lift the Nasdaq Biotech Index.
Tuesday:
Shopify (SHOP):
Metrics to Watch: Revenue growth rate, gross merchandise volume (GMV), and subscription solutions revenue.
Forecast Impact: E-commerce growth could drive optimism in tech. However, concerns over rising costs may temper gains.
American International Group (AIG):
Metrics to Watch: Combined ratio for insurance operations and investment income.
Forecast Impact: AIG’s performance could influence financials broadly. Strong results may signal resilience in the insurance sector amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.