#4 Weekly Update - Tax Cuts! +200% Gainers - Incoming Earnings Brawl! Mid-Term Telegram Alerts Launch
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Federal Income Tax Exemptions!
The return to office reignites debates on federal tax policy. His plans target Social Security benefits, tips, overtime pay, and SALT deductions. This analysis breaks down the proposals, impacts, and challenges.
1. Eliminate Taxes on Social Security Benefits
He vows to stop taxing Social Security income for retirees. Retirees now pay taxes on up to 85% of benefits if their income tops 34,000(single) or 44,000 (joint). About 40% of beneficiaries pay these taxes, funding $50.7 billion yearly for Social Security and Medicare.
Middle- and high-income retirees could save 1,190 annually. But lost revenue might push Social Security insolvency to 2031 and Medicare to 2030. The plan costs 1.2–$1.8 trillion over ten years.
2. Exempt Tip and Overtime Income
Tips: Workers earning 34,000 yearly might save 1,600. Critics argue employers may cut base wages, harming income stability. Cost: 150–500 billion.
Overtime: Exempting overtime taxes could boost hourly work but distort labor markets. Employers face higher costs. No cost estimate exists yet.
3. Repeal SALT Deduction Cap
Trump seeks to remove the 10,000 SALT cap, aiding high−tax states like California and New York. Restoring unlimited deductions benefits wealthy households but costs 1–$1.2 trillion in federal revenue.
4. Extend TCJA Provisions
Key expiring TCJA provisions include:
37% top tax rate (vs. 39.6%)
20% pass-through business deduction
Doubled standard deduction ($30,000 for joint filers)
Extensions cost 3.5–3.5–4.6 trillion, with 45% of benefits going to households earning over $450,000.
5. Corporate Tax Cuts and Tariffs
Trump proposes cutting corporate rates to 20% (15% for manufacturers) and imposing tariffs (60% on Chinese goods, 20% on others). Corporate cuts save firms $240 billion over four years but widen racial wealth gaps. Tariffs risk raising consumer prices.
Challenges
Deficit growth: Proposals add 8–8–10 trillion over a decade.
Regressive benefits: Top 1% gain 70,000 yearly; middle−class gain 1,000.
Bipartisan opposition: Democrats reject cuts harming Social Security or favoring the wealthy.
The plans offer relief to retirees, workers, and businesses but risk fiscal instability and inequality. Success hinges on tariffs, spending cuts, or higher deficits. Congress faces tough debates in 2025.
Market Snapshot: Steady Gains Amid Policy Uncertainty
The S&P 500 closed at 6,101 last week, down 0.44%. The Nasdaq rose 3.50%, and the Dow gained 0.92%. Healthcare and industrials stabilized markets, balancing tech declines. Investors watch Trump’s inauguration and await Fed guidance. Key S&P 500 support holds at 5,855–6,015, resistance near 6,215.
Key Events Driving This Week’s Market
1. Federal Reserve Meeting (Jan 29)
The Fed will likely hold rates at 4.25–4.50%. Powell’s comments on Trump’s rate-cut push will draw attention. Analysts expect hawkish tones, projecting fewer 2025 cuts and a 3.75% year-end rate. Core PCE forecasts stay at 2.5%, complicating policy easing.
2. Q4 GDP Release (Jan 30)
U.S. GDP growth may slow to 2.8% from 3.1% in Q3. Resilient consumption offsets weak investment. Germany’s GDP could shrink 0.2%, highlighting industrial struggles.
3. PCE Inflation Data (Jan 31)
December core PCE may hit 0.2%, matching the Fed’s target. Headline PCE could rise to 0.3% due to energy swings. Higher numbers may revive fears of prolonged tight policy.
Short Term Update - Newest Additions
Movements and Shifts
Recent market activity reveals compelling shifts across various sectors:
MSFT 0.00%↑ : Leading with 172.90% position surge, 76 buys, $30.20M value at 0.623 weight
NVDA 0.00%↑ : Strong 167.34% position gain, 78 buys, $31.20M traded at 0.612 weight
AAPL 0.00%↑ : Notable 164.67% position growth, 73 buys, $29.10M value at 0.601 weight
ICYMI:
Last Week:
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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