#26 Weekly Update - Almighty MicroStrategy - More Tariff Mayhem
Diffused WWIII - What's Next?
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📅Week Calendar June 30-06, 2025
High Impact Events
Tuesday July 1
Fed Chair Powell Speech: High Impact
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Forecast 52%, Actual 52%
JOLTs Job Openings (May): Forecast 7.45%, Actual 7.391%
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Forecast 48.8%, Actual 48.5%
Wednesday July 2
ADP Employment Change (Jun): Forecast 80%, Actual 37%
Thursday July 3
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Jun): Forecast 100, Actual 140
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Jun/28): Forecast 246, Actual 245
Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/21): Forecast 2.0K, Actual 2.0K
Unemployment Rate (Jun): Forecast 4.2%, Actual 4.2%
Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/28): Forecast 239, Actual 236
Non Farm Payrolls (Jun): Forecast 129, Actual 139
U-6 Unemployment Rate (Jun): Forecast 7.8%, Actual 7.8%
S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): Forecast 53.1%, Actual 53.7%
ISM Services PMI (Jun): Forecast 49.7%, Actual 49.9%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Forecast 50.8%, Actual 49.9%
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun): High Impact, Actual 68.7%
Summary
Numerous high-impact events concentrated particularly on Thursday July 3, with comprehensive employment data releases. Tuesday features Fed Chair Powell's high-impact speech and important manufacturing indicators. Wednesday has key ADP employment figures showing significant divergence between forecast (80%) and actual (37%). Thursday's comprehensive jobs report shows stronger-than-expected private payrolls (140 vs 100 forecast) alongside stable unemployment rates. The week concludes with Friday July 4, which contains several medium-impact CFTC speculative positions reports but no high-impact events, likely due to the Independence Day holiday in the US.
Last Week Recap:
The Tariff About to Go Off
Two completely different stories are playing out in the market right now. NASDAQ closed up 0.52% - tech keeps grinding higher like nothing can stop it. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 0.52%, which tells you everything about how nervous everyone really is about July.
I've been watching Trump's tariff circus since April, and we're basically sitting in the eye of the hurricane right now. That 90-day pause expires in early July, and despite all the noise about "negotiations," the only real deal we've seen is with the UK. That's it.
The Numbers
Here's what the tariff math actually looks like: every American household is going to pay an extra $1,200 this year. That's not some theoretical economist prediction - that's what's already happening. The Wharton analysis shows these tariffs could slice 8% off GDP and 7% off wages.
Companies aren't waiting around to see what happens. Nissan just shut down production of two Mexico-built SUVs for the US market because of the 25% vehicle tariffs. This is exactly the kind of chaos I expected, but it's happening way faster than anyone thought.
JPMorgan just bumped their recession odds to 40% from 30%. When Jamie Dimon's crew starts getting worried, you should pay attention.
The S&P 500 is Walking a Tightrope
The technical picture here is not pretty. We're sitting at 6,173, in no man's land. The key support levels are 6,100 and 6,575. Support comes in at 5,770 and 5,650.
That 6,100 level is the real problem. It's where all the peaks from December to February line up, and if we crack below here, 5,770 becomes make-or-break territory. Lose that and the algos start selling everything.
The momentum isn’t in full blast. We finally poked our head above ATH for the first time since February, but buying volume isn’t the breakout. That's not bullish behavior.
MicroStrategy: Still the Wildest Trade in the Market
MSTR keeps doing things that shouldn't be possible. They're sitting on 592,345 bitcoins that they bought for an average of $66,384 each. Total cost: $33.1 billion.
They just cranked up their 2025 "BTC Yield" target from 15% to 25%. That's aggressive as hell, especially right now. But somehow they pulled off a $21 billion stock sale, bought 301,335 more bitcoins, and the stock went up 50% during the same period. That doesn't happen in normal markets.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.