Today's Update 06-25-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Upcoming Earnings Estimates
June 26th
Nike, Inc. (NKE)
Time: 16:15 ET
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.13
Revenue (Rev): $10.71 billion
July 15th
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)
Time: 06:00 ET
EPS: $10.68
Rev: $5.38 billion
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Time: 06:55 ET
EPS: $4.43
Rev: $44.1 billion
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
Time: 07:00 ET
EPS: $1.40
Rev: $20.78 billion
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Time: 07:00 ET
EPS: $1.65
Rev: $20.77 billion
Key Economic Indicators & Reports
Energy Information Administration (EIA) Reports
Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -5.836 million barrels
Forecast: -1.1 million barrels
Previous: -11.473 million barrels
Gasoline Inventories
Actual: -2.075 million barrels
Forecast: +0.5 million barrels
Previous: +0.209 million barrels
Distillate Inventories
Actual: -4.066 million barrels
Forecast: +1 million barrels
Previous: +0.514 million barrels
Crude Cushing Inventories
Actual: -0.464 million barrels
Previous: -0.995 million barrels
Upcoming U.S. Economic Data (June 26)
08:30 ET
Durable Goods Orders
Initial Jobless Claims
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ Final
Core Durable Goods Orders
Advance Goods Trade Balance
Wholesale Inventories MoM Advance
Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Advance
10:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Market News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to conclude his testimony before Congress, with investors closely watching for hints on future monetary policy.
Fed Officials' Remarks
Fed's Powell: Indicated confidence in moving on Basel III and Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) adjustments in the near future.
Fed's Collins: Expects to resume policy normalization later this year; watching tariff impacts on inflation and growth.
Geopolitical Developments
Middle East Tensions Easing
Israel-Iran Ceasefire appears to be holding, with both sides claiming victory.
Iran's Foreign Ministry reports significant damage to nuclear installations following U.S. strikes.
NATO Summit
Member countries have committed to increased defense spending, aiming for investments of at least 3.5% of GDP in core defense requirements.
U.S. President Trump emphasized the success of the summit and NATO's strengthened position.
Corporate News
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
The EU has given Apple a June 26 ultimatum to comply with Digital Markets Act (DMA) rules to avoid potential fines.
JPMorgan Asset Management
Launched the largest active ETF in history, anchored by a $2 billion institutional client investment.
Market Metrics
Stock Market
S&P 500 Futures: Steady, with the index nearing an all-time high.
Nasdaq 100 Futures: Slight increase, indicating potential continuation of its record run.
Bond Market
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Recently decreased by five basis points, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Commodity Prices
Oil Prices: Rebounded after the largest two-day decline since 2022.
Brent Crude: Trading approximately 0.8% higher near $68 per barrel.
Currency Markets
U.S. Dollar: Modest gains against major currencies.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: At 66/100, indicating a sentiment of 'Greed' in the cryptocurrency market.
Fear & Greed Index (General Market): At 62/100, also pointing towards 'Greed'.
Global Economic Indicators
Switzerland
ZEW Expectations Index
Actual: -2.1 (Previous: -22.0)
Spain
GDP QoQ: Actual 0.6% (Forecast 0.6%)
GDP YoY: Actual 2.8% (Forecast 2.8%)
France
Consumer Confidence: Actual 88 (Forecast 89)
Japanese Economic Outlook
BoJ's Tamura: Notes upside risks to price outlook are heightening, with potential need for decisive action if inflation pressures increase.
Noteworthy Statements
U.S. Political Updates
President Trump
Indicated willingness to negotiate with Iran, emphasizing that the U.S. is not giving up on sanctions.
Mentioned potential trade negotiations with Spain and other countries.
Administration Officials
Commerce Secretary: Advocates for rate cuts based on low inflation and increased tariff revenue.
Council of Economic Advisers: Projects significant deficit reductions over the next decade due to current policies.
European Leaders
France's President Macron: Discussed the fragility of the Iran-Israel ceasefire and trade war concerns with the U.S.
Germany's Chancellor Merz: Pushed for tougher sanctions on Russia and increased defense spending among EU countries.
Upcoming Catalysts:
Nike earnings today (4:15 PM ET): EPS $0.13, Rev $10.71B
Major bank earnings July 15th (JPM, WFC, C, BLK)
Fed's Powell Senate testimony continues
Final Thoughts
The market is showing classic late-cycle behavior - greed levels elevated while underlying economic data (housing sales down 13.7%) suggests cooling momentum. The energy complex is caught between geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns, with inventory draws providing temporary support.
Powell's dovish pivot is keeping rate cut hopes alive, but the real story is how markets are pricing perfection while ignoring warning signs. The housing data miss is particularly concerning given its leading indicator status for broader economic health.
Watch for any hawkish surprises from Powell's Senate testimony today - the market's current positioning leaves little room for disappointment. The Iran situation remains fluid, and any escalation could quickly reverse the recent oil selloff.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry