#20 Weekly Update - A Look At MicroStrategy - 3 Underappreciated Companies
Bullish Momentum Amid Geopolitical Complexity
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📅Week Calendar May 19-25, 2025
High Impact Events
Thursday May 22
Initial Jobless Claims (May/17): Forecast 232, Prior 229
Continuing Jobless Claims (May/10): Forecast 1.9K, Prior 1.9K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May/17): Forecast 231, Prior 230.5
S&P Global Services PMI (May): Forecast 50.7%, Prior 50.8%
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Forecast 49.9%, Prior 50.2%
Existing Home Sales (Apr): Forecast 4.1%, Prior 4.02%
Existing Home Sales MoM: Forecast -3%, Prior -5.9%
Friday May 23
New Home Sales (Apr): Forecast -4.7%, Prior 7.4%
Sunday May 25
Fed Chair Powell Speech (High Impact)
Key Economic Data
Wednesday May 21
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/16): Prior 6.86%
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/16): Prior 3.454%
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16): Prior -1.022%
Market Positioning (Friday May 23)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative positions: -122.2
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative positions: 19.5%
CFTC Crude Oil speculative positions: 185.3
CFTC Gold Speculative positions: 161.2
Heavy Fed speaker schedule throughout the week, with multiple appearances including Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan, Kashkari, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly, and Barkin. Focus on PMI data and housing market metrics, alongside continued monitoring of employment indicators. Powell's Sunday speech could set the tone for the following week's market activity.
Last Week Recap:
The US stock market enters this week riding a significant wave of positive momentum, with major indices erasing their 2025 losses on the back of easing US-China trade tensions. Let's break down where we stand and what's likely coming.
Market Performance Snapshot
Last week brought remarkable gains across all major indices:
S&P 500: Up 5.3% (now up 1.3% YTD), closing at 5,916.93
Dow Jones: Up 3.4% (now up 0.3% YTD), closing at 42,322.75
Nasdaq Composite: Up 7.2% (still down 0.5% YTD), closing at 19,112.32
The primary catalyst was straightforward: the temporary 90-day reduction in US-China tariffs announced on May 13th, which has investors cautiously optimistic about a potential broader trade deal. This development, combined with April's PPI showing a surprising 0.5% month-over-month decline, has significantly shifted market sentiment away from recession fears.
Geopolitical Framework
We're navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape that's influencing market dynamics:
The Trump administration has signaled openness to peace talks with Russia regarding Ukraine
US-EU relations continue deteriorating following discussions at the European Political Community Summit in Albania
Recent elections in the Philippines, Poland, and Portugal may reshape regional economic policies
The upcoming 78th World Health Assembly in Geneva (May 19-27) marks the deadline for global Pandemic Agreement negotiations
The most concerning development is Moody's May 16th downgrade of US government credit, citing "persistent, large fiscal deficits" with projections that US debt will swell to 134% of GDP by 2035. This adds a new element of uncertainty that markets haven't fully processed.
Three Undervalued Opportunities
Among the noise, these stocks appear significantly undervalued:
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.