Today's Update 05-15-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
1. US Economic Data Releases:
Producer Price Index (PPI) - April 2025:
PPI Year-over-Year (YoY): Increased by 2.4%
(Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.7%, Revised from 3.4%)PPI Month-over-Month (MoM): Decreased by 0.5%
(Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: -0.4%, Revised from 0%)Core PPI YoY: Rose by 3.1%
(Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: 3.3%, Revised from 4%)Core PPI MoM: Dropped by 0.4%
(Forecast: +0.3%, Previous: -0.1%, Revised from +0.4%)
Retail Sales - April 2025:
Retail Sales MoM: Increased by 0.1%
(Forecast: 0%, Previous: +1.4%, Revised from +1.7%)Core Retail Sales MoM: Up by 0.1%
(Forecast: +0.3%, Previous: +0.5%, Revised from +0.8%)Retail Sales YoY: Grew by 5.16%
(Previous: 4.60%, Revised from 4.91%)
Labor Market:
Initial Jobless Claims: 229,000
(Forecast: 227,500, Previous: 228,000, Revised from 229,000)Continued Jobless Claims: 1.881 million
(Forecast: 1.89 million, Previous: 1.879 million, Revised from 1.872 million)
Manufacturing Indices:
NY Fed (Empire State) Manufacturing Index: -9.2
(Forecast: -8, Previous: -8.1)Philadelphia Fed Business Index: -4.0
(Forecast: -11, Previous: -26.4)
Industrial Production - April 2025:
Industrial Production MoM: Unchanged at 0%
(Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: -0.3%)Manufacturing Output MoM: Decreased by 0.4%
(Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: +0.3%)Capacity Utilization: 77.7%
(Forecast: 77.8%, Previous: 77.8%)Industrial Production YoY: Increased by 1.49%
(Previous: 1.34%)
Housing Market:
NAHB Housing Market Index: 34
(Forecast: 40, Previous: 40)
Business Inventories:
Business Inventories MoM: Rose by 0.1%
(Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: +0.2%)
2. Canadian Economic Data:
Manufacturing Sales MoM: Decreased by 1.4%
(Forecast: -1.9%, Previous: +0.2%, Revised from -0.2%)Wholesale Sales MoM: Increased by 0.2%
(Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: +0.3%, Revised from +1%)Housing Starts (Annualized): 278,606 units
(Forecast: 226,240 units, Previous: 214,200 units)
3. Energy Data:
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Injection of 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf)
(Forecast: 110 Bcf, Previous: 104 Bcf)
4. Sentiment Indicators:
Fear & Greed Index: Stands at 71/100, indicating 'Greed'
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: At 70/100, also indicating 'Greed'
5. Market Moving News:
Federal Reserve Updates:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Remarks:
Emphasized the need for the Fed's framework to be robust against frequent and persistent supply shocks.
Highlighted that the focus on inflation expectations remains a permanent aspect of the Fed's approach.
Indicated that April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is likely around 2.2%.
Mentioned that officials are reconsidering strategic language around employment shortfalls and average inflation targeting.
International Relations:
Iran Nuclear Deal:
A senior Iranian official stated that Tehran has not received any fresh U.S. proposals to resolve outstanding differences in the nuclear dispute.
Russia-Ukraine Developments:
Head of Russian Delegation, Medinsky, mentioned that talks with Ukraine are considered a continuation of those interrupted in 2022.
Russia expressed readiness to discuss compromises in talks with Ukraine.
JPMorgan Chase:
CEO Jamie Dimon's Comments:
Expects continued market volatility.
Mentioned that recession odds cannot be ruled out.
6. Other Noteworthy News:
Technology and Regulations:
China: Tightening control over AI data centers, as reported by The Information.
Economic Forecasts:
Germany:
The German Council of Tax Experts expects lower tax revenues for the federal government and municipalities in the coming years compared to previous forecasts.
Anticipates €81.2 billion less in total tax revenues from 2025 to 2029 versus the October forecast.
Trade Agreements:
US and UAE: Finalized a technology framework agreement.
US-Japan: Considering the possibility of revising the Japan-US trade agreement in bilateral tariff negotiations.
7. Sentiment in Real Estate Market:
Redfin Report:
Pending U.S. home sales fell by 3.4% year-over-year during the four weeks ending May 11th.
New listings are rising, offering opportunities for some buyers to secure deals.
Economic uncertainties and high costs are stifling spring home sales.
Market Developments:
Bond yields fell on Wall Street as tame inflation data combined with weak retail and manufacturing readings strengthened the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed cooling inflation with a -0.5% monthly decline versus the expected 0.2% increase.
Retail sales showed minimal growth at 0.1%, while the housing market index disappointed at 34 versus expectations of 40, indicating continued weakness in the housing sector.
Oil markets reacted to geopolitical news, with WTI strengthening after a senior Iranian official stated Tehran has not received any fresh US proposal to resolve nuclear dispute differences, despite Trump's comments that the US is getting closer to a deal.
Tech stocks faced pressure in early trading with Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla all down approximately 2%. Meanwhile, Walmart reported better-than-expected earnings with adjusted EPS of 61 cents versus 58 cents forecast, though the company warned that price hikes from tariffs may start this month.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks are developing, with a Russian delegation waiting in Istanbul, though Ukraine has not yet sent representatives. Trump commented that "nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together."
Final Thoughts
Markets are displaying classic signs of a growth slowdown, with weak manufacturing and housing data alongside cooling inflation. This combination is strengthening the case for Fed rate cuts, with Powell's upcoming speech likely to provide further insights into the central bank's thinking. Geopolitical tensions remain a wild card, particularly regarding Iran nuclear negotiations and Russia-Ukraine talks. Investors should watch for Powell's comments on the Fed's framework review and potential signals about the timing of rate cuts, as April PCE inflation is expected around 2.2% according to Powell's remarks. The divergence between economic data and still-elevated market valuations suggests continued volatility ahead, as noted by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry