#11 Weekly Update - Recession Alert - Preparing For The Storm Ahead
💥 Wall Street Faces Rising Recession Turmoil
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Markets suffered significant declines last week across all major indices: Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 3.1%, S&P 500 fell 2.3%, and Nasdaq retreated 2.4%.
It marks the worst weekly performance of 2025, showcasing intensifying fears about economic conditions as the April 2nd tariff implementation date approaches. Major economic forecasters have drastically raised their recession risk assessments - JPMorgan now puts odds at 40% (up from 30% in January), while former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers states a "near-50%" recession probability.
The coming week delivers crucial economic reports and high-profile earnings that will test market stability amid multiplying pressures. Quant analysis indicates volatility will continue with downward bias as participants react to new information against the backdrop of trade policy uncertainty and tight monetary conditions.
Top Market Signals
Recession probability metrics surge: Primary economic forecasters have dramatically increased their recession odds - JPMorgan (40%, up from 30%), Larry Summers (≈50%), Moody's Analytics (35%, up from 15%), and Yardeni Research (35%, up from 20%)
S&P 500 mathematical projections: Our statistical models calculate the index will close March at 5424, constituting an 8.9% monthly decline, with potential downside to 4966 in worst-case scenarios
Wall Street target reductions: Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end S&P 500 target from 6500 to 6200, while Yardeni Research cut its optimistic case from 7000 to 6400, citing tariff effects and stagflation risks
Key data releases: Retail Sales (Monday), Industrial Production (Tuesday), and Existing Home Sales (Thursday) will provide critical insights into economic health amid growing recession fears
Rate cut expectations weaken: Fed projections now indicate only two potential rate cuts in 2025, reducing downside protection for stocks and maintaining mortgage rates high near 6%
Let's dive in and make some smart moves! 💰🚀
📅Week's Calendar March 17-23, 2025
High-Impact Events for the Week
Monday, March 17: Retail Sales Focus
Several retail sales indicators scheduled for 12:30pm USD, all with High impact
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 6% forecast vs 5.7% previous (Medium impact)
NAHB Housing Market Index at 44% forecast vs 42% previous (Medium impact)
Tuesday, March 18: Housing & Price Data
Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30pm (High impact)
Import/Export Price data (Medium impact)
Industrial Production MoM at 0.2% forecast vs 0.5% previous (Medium impact)
Crude oil stock data at 8:30pm (Medium impact)
Wednesday, March 19: Fed Decision Day
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate data at 11:00am (Medium impact)
EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks data in afternoon (Medium impact)
Fed Interest Rate Decision at 6:00pm followed by Economic Projections, Minutes, and Press Conference (all High impact)
Rate expectation remains at 4.5%
Thursday, March 20: Manufacturing & Housing
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 11% forecast vs 18.1% previous (Medium impact)
Initial Jobless Claims at 225 forecast vs 220 previous (Medium impact)
Existing Home Sales at 4.05% forecast vs 4.08% previous (High impact)
Friday, March 21:
Fed Williams Speech at 1:05pm (Medium impact)
A focus on retail data early in the week, followed by housing and the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is the most significant event with multiple high-impact metrics.
Critical Economic Data and Market-Moving Events
Economic events to watch this week:
Short Term Update - Newest Additions
Movements and Shifts
Recent market activity shifts across various sectors:
Top Buy Signals
GOOGL 0.00%↑ : Leading with 164.56% position change, 69 buys at $27.80M
ASML 0.00%↑ : Strong 152.34% position change, 72 buys at $28.90M
$RHM: Solid 146.78% position change, 58 buys at $23.40M
Notable Sells
NKE 0.00%↑ : -65.89% position drop, 31 sales at $12.40M
CNI 0.00%↑ : -62.45% position decrease, 30 sales at $11.90M
RIO 0.00%↑ : -59.90% position reduction, 31 sales at $12.30M
Strategic Movements
JPM 0.00%↑ : 142.67% position change, 62 buys at $24.80M
NFLX 0.00%↑ : 136.78% position change, 55 buys at $21.90M
SBUX 0.00%↑ : 132.67% position change, 51 buys at $20.30M
Last Week Recap:
In-Short
The stock market underwent widespread selling last week as macroeconomic worries intensified. Here's the data on major indices:
Major Indices (Week of March 10-14, 2025):
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.1% (closed at 42,252.5)
S&P 500: -2.3% (closed at 5,638.94)
Nasdaq Composite: -2.4%
Russell 2000: -3.7%
Sector Performance (Week of March 10-14, 2025):
Worst Performers:
Technology (-3.9%)
Consumer Discretionary (-3.1%)
Industrials (-2.8%)
Best Performers:
Utilities (-0.8%)
Consumer Staples (-1.2%)
Healthcare (-1.7%)
Notable Market Movers:
NVIDIA (NVDA): -7.2% as AI valuation concerns increased
Tesla (TSLA): -6.5% amid factory slowdown reports
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): -4.1% following recession forecast updates
Gold miners (GDX): +2.3% as investors sought risk protection assets
Economics Analysis
Recent economic data shows conflicting patterns, creating market uncertainty. Last week's inflation readings exceeded expectations, complicating the Fed's path forward.
February CPI (Released March 12):
Headline CPI: +0.4% month-over-month, +3.2% year-over-year
Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.3% month-over-month, +3.5% year-over-year
Both measures came in 0.1% above consensus forecasts
February PPI (Released March 14):
Producer Price Index: +0.3% month-over-month, +2.8% year-over-year
Core PPI: +0.2% month-over-month, +3.0% year-over-year
Labor Market Indicators:
Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending March 8): 245,000 (+12,000 from previous week)
Continuing Claims: 1.87 million (highest since November 2021)
3-month moving average of claims: +7.5% year-over-year
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.