Today's Update 03-11-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
U.S. Increases Tariffs on Canadian Metals:
President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, raising the total tariff to 50%.
The increased tariffs will take effect tomorrow morning.
Trump also indicated plans to "substantially increase" other tariffs on Canada by April 2 if Canada does not remove tariffs on dairy products and other U.S. goods.
Impact: Potential weakness in the Canadian dollar (CAD) and pressure on the S&P 500 and related sectors.
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Exceed Expectations:
Actual: 7.74 million
Forecast: 7.6 million
Previous: Revised from 7.600 million to 7.508 million
Indicates continued strength in the U.S. labor market.
Market Reactions:
U.S. short-term interest-rate futures reduced earlier losses following the job openings data.
U.S. stocks declined after the tariff announcement.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average showed signs of weakness.
Effective Federal Funds Rate:
Remained steady at 4.33% on March 10, unchanged from March 7.
U.S. Redbook Index (Year-over-Year):
Actual: 5.7%
Previous: 6.6%
Suggests a slight slowdown in retail sales growth.
Citigroup Adjusts Stock Ratings:
U.S. Stocks: Downgraded to neutral from overweight.
China Stocks: Upgraded to overweight, reflecting increased optimism in Chinese markets.
Energy Sector Developments:
Oil Flow Disruptions:
Oil flow to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline was halted after an attack; potential resumption expected today.
The Ukrainian military reported drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Moscow and Oryol regions.
Impact: Heightened geopolitical risks affecting energy supplies.
European Central Bank (ECB) Updates:
Settled €280.2 billion in corporate bond purchases.
Bond holdings under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reached €1.57 trillion as of last week.
Settled €2,075.6 billion in public-sector bond purchases.
Foreign exchange reserves increased by €1.2 billion to €348.4 billion.
German 2-Year Schatz Auction:
Yield: 2.22% (Previous: 2.14%)
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.4 (Previous: 2.7)
Currency Strength Chart:
Strongest Currencies: Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Swiss Franc (CHF), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Japanese Yen (JPY), U.S. Dollar (USD)
Weakest Currencies: Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index:
Actual: 100.7
Forecast: 101
Previous: 102.8
Indicates a slight decline in small business optimism.
Upcoming Economic Events and Data Releases:
March 11:
14:00: U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Actual released as above)
16:00: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Report (Tentative)
16:00: WASDE Reports:
Cotton End Stocks: Forecast 4.9 million (Previous: 4.9 million)
Soybean End Stocks: Forecast 380 million (Previous: 380 million)
Corn End Stocks: Forecast 1,517.5 million (Previous: 1,540 million)
Wheat End Stocks: Forecast 794 million (Previous: 794 million)
17:00: U.S. 3-Year Note Auction
High Yield: Previous 4.300%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: Previous 2.790
20:30: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (Tentative)
Crude Oil Stock Change: Previous -1.455 million barrels
Gasoline Stock Change: Previous -1.249 million barrels
Distillate Stock Change: Previous 1.136 million barrels
Cushing Stock Change: Previous 1.63 million barrels
21:00: President Trump's Business Roundtable
March 12:
23:00: South Korean Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 3%
Previous: 2.9%
23:50: Japan Producer Price Index (PPI)
PPI YoY:
Forecast: 4%
Previous: 4.2%
PPI MoM:
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: 0.3%
Japanese Business Survey Index: Previous 6.3%
March 12 (Continued):
08:00: ECB's Simkus speaks
08:00: Spanish Retail Sales SA YoY
Forecast: 3.8%
Previous: 4.0%
08:45: ECB President Lagarde speaks
09:15: ECB's Villeroy speaks
10:30: German 10-Year Bund Auction
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: Previous 2.8
Yield: Previous 2.52%
10:30: UK 10-Year Gilt Auction
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: Previous 1.52
Yield: Previous 2.323%
11:00: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications
Previous: 20.4%
11:00: U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
Previous: 6.73%
12:00: OPEC Monthly Report (Tentative)
12:30: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI YoY:
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 3.0%
CPI MoM:
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.5%
Core CPI YoY:
Forecast: 3.2%
Previous: 3.3%
Final Thoughts:
The markets are experiencing significant volatility following Trump's surprise announcement of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a delicate time as global markets were just beginning to recover from Monday's tech-led selloff. The stronger-than-expected JOLTS job openings data (7.74M vs 7.6M forecast) initially provided some support for markets, suggesting continued labor market resilience, but the tariff news quickly overshadowed this positive economic indicator.
Investors should closely monitor developments in US-Canada trade relations, as Trump has threatened further tariff increases by April 2 if Canada doesn't drop tariffs on dairy products and other US goods. With the CPI report due tomorrow and potential market-moving events like the WASDE report and EIA data coming later today, expect continued volatility across equity, currency, and commodity markets. The trade tension escalation could have significant implications for inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry