Today's Update 03-14-2025

Key Points and Metrics

Key Points and Metrics:

1. Canadian Wholesale Sales (MoM):

• Time: 12:30

• Actual: 3.2%

• Forecast: 1.4%

• Previous: -3.1%

• Insight: Wholesale sales in Canada surged significantly, outperforming expectations and reversing the previous month's decline.

2. Canadian Manufacturing Sales (MoM):

• Time: 12:30

• Actual: 1.2%

• Forecast: 1.8%

• Previous: -0.2%

• Insight: Manufacturing sales increased but fell short of forecasts, indicating moderate growth in the manufacturing sector.

3. ECB Speakers:

• 13:15: ECB's Cipollone Speaks

• 07:30 ET: ECB's Holzmann noted that interest rates are already at neutral levels.

4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary):

• Time: 14:00

• Forecast: 63

• Previous: 64.7

• Note: Awaiting actual figures; a slight decrease in consumer sentiment is anticipated.

5. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (Preliminary):

• 1-Year Inflation Expectation:

  • Time: 14:00

  • Forecast: 4.3%

  • Previous: 4.3%

  • Insight: Short-term inflation expectations remain unchanged.

• 5-Year Inflation Expectation:

  • Time: 14:00

  • Forecast: 3.4%

  • Previous: 3.5%

  • Insight: Long-term inflation expectations have slightly decreased.

6. UK GDP Estimate (MoM):

• Time: 03:00 ET

• Actual: -0.1%

• Forecast: 0.1%

• Previous: 0.4%

• Impact: The UK economy contracted slightly, missing expectations and potentially leading to GBP weakness.

7. Upcoming Economic Data (March 17):

• UK House Price Index (Rightmove):

  • Previous YoY: 1.4%

  • Previous MoM: 0.5%

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (MoM):

  • Previous: 2.5%

• China Economic Indicators:

  • New House Prices YoY Previous: -5.0%

  • Urban Investment YTD YoY Forecast/Previous: 3.2%

  • Unemployment Rate Forecast/Previous: 5.1%

  • Retail Sales YoY Previous: 3.7%

  • Industrial Output YoY Previous: 6.2%

• Italian Inflation Data:

  • HICP Final YoY Forecast/Previous: 1.7%

  • CPI YoY Final Previous: 1.7%

8. US Retail Sales (MoM):

• Time: 12:30

• Forecast: 0.7%

• Previous: -0.9%

• Insight: A rebound in retail sales is expected after a decline in the previous month.

9. US Core Retail Sales (MoM):

• Time: 12:30

• Forecast: 0.4%

• Previous: -0.4%

10. NY Fed Manufacturing Index:

• Time: 12:30

• Forecast: -2

• Previous: 5.70

• Insight: The index is expected to enter negative territory, indicating potential contraction in manufacturing activity.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump reported "productive discussions" with Putin on Thursday

• Trump congratulated Schumer for "doing the right thing" on tax cuts and debt ceiling

• Israeli cabinet to meet Saturday regarding Gaza ceasefire negotiations

• Canada working to arrange call between Trump and Prime Minister

FINAL THOUGHTS

The markets are showing resilience despite mixed economic signals. Gold's surge past $3,000 reflects ongoing investor caution amid geopolitical tensions. Germany's €500 billion infrastructure agreement represents a significant fiscal commitment that could boost European economic growth. The upcoming University of Michigan sentiment data will be closely watched for consumer confidence trends. Meanwhile, Trump's communications suggest potential shifts in US-Russia relations and domestic policy priorities. Canadian manufacturing data came in slightly below expectations but still showed solid growth, indicating economic resilience in North America despite recent tariff concerns.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.

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Harry