#18 Weekly Update - Pharmaceutical +900% ! The State Of DRIV
Portfolio and Updates Coming This Week
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📅Week's Calendar May 05-11, 2025
High Impact Events
Monday May 5
S&P Global Services PMI (Apr): Forecast 51.4%, Prior 54.4%
ISM Services PMI (Apr): Forecast 50.6%, Prior 50.8%
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Apr): Prior 60.9%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Forecast 50.6%, Prior 50.8%
Wednesday May 7
Fed Interest Rate Decision: Forecast 4.5%, Prior 4.5%
FOMC Minutes & Press Conference
Thursday May 8
Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr/26): Forecast 1.9K, Prior 1.9K
Initial Jobless Claims (May/03): Forecast 246, Prior 241
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May/03): Forecast 231.5, Prior 226
Key Economic Data
Tuesday May 6
Trade Balance (Mar): Forecast -124.7, Prior -122.7
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): Forecast 1.1%, Prior 1.1%
Wednesday May 7
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/02): Prior 6.89%
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/02): Prior -2.696%
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02): Prior -4.002%
BoE Consumer Credit: Forecast 9.9%, Prior -0.81%
Market Positioning (Friday May 9)
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative positions: 30.9%
CFTC Crude Oil speculative positions: 177.2
CFTC Gold Speculative positions: 163.3
CFTC S&P 500 speculative positions: -78.7%
This week features critical economic indicators including Fed interest rate decision, employment data, and services sector indices that could significantly impact market sentiment. Multiple Fed speakers are scheduled throughout Friday May 9, including Fed Barr, Kugler, Goolsbee, Waller, Williams, Cook, Musalem and Hammack speeches.
Last Week Recap:
A Short Look at Driv
I've been tracking the EV market closely, and it's one of the most fascinating stories playing out right now. Here's my breakdown of what's happening and where we're headed:
Current Market Situation
Tesla's stock has been on a wild ride - hitting $480 in December 2024, crashing to $240 by March, and now hovering around $290
The DRIV ETF has bounced between $25 and $17 over the past year, currently sitting around $21
Chinese manufacturers are gaining ground at an astonishing pace
BYD captured 24% of the global EV market in January (up from 19.8% last year)
Tesla's share has dropped to 8% (down from 10.7%)
Chinese February NEV sales jumped 87% year-over-year
Key Competitive Developments
BYD isn't just winning on volume - they're innovating faster
Their new charging tech claims to add 250 miles in just five minutes
Tesla's Superchargers need 15 minutes for 200 miles
Tesla is launching a more affordable model in June 2025 to fight back
Rivian continues focusing on premium adventure vehicles but faces pressure from Tesla's price cuts
The Tariff Situation
Trump's 90-day tariff pause in April sparked the recent rally in EV stocks
The pause maintained a base 10% duty that started April 5th
More severe tariffs on Chinese EVs and batteries are scheduled to start August 1st
Some increases won't come into effect until January 2025 or 2026
This policy whiplash makes long-term planning extremely difficult
My Outlook for Next 6-12 Months
Short-term: Expect Tesla to trade between $250-$350
DRIV should stay in a $20-$25 range
60% chance DRIV ends 2025 above $22.50 (assuming no major policy disasters)
Also a meaningful chance it drops below $20 if incentives get cut or competition intensifies
Volatility will remain high - expect big swings with policy announcements and earnings reports
The Bigger Picture
The EV market is transitioning from early adopter phase to mass market. Easy growth is over - now it's about manufacturing efficiency and cost control. Companies that can deliver good EVs under $30,000 will likely win. Charging speed might end up mattering more than range. BYD has a huge advantage with their vertically integrated model. The intersection of technology, policy, and geopolitics makes this market uniquely complex. The EV revolution isn't going away, but the path forward is messier than expected
Newest Additions Movements and Shifts
Recent market activity shifts across various sectors:
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.