Today's Update 07-15-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Indicators and Data Releases:
United States:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025:
CPI YoY: Actual 2.7% (Forecast 2.6%, Previous 2.4%)
CPI MoM: Actual 0.3% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.1%)
Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy):
Core CPI YoY: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%)
Core CPI MoM: Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.1%)
New York Fed Manufacturing Index:
Actual: 5.50 (Forecast -9.2, Previous -16.00)
United States Supercore CPI:
Supercore CPI YoY: 3.02% (Previous 2.86%)
Supercore CPI MoM: 0.06% (Previous 0.21%)
Canada:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025:
CPI YoY: Actual 1.9% (Forecast 1.9%, Previous 1.7%)
CPI MoM: Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.6%)
Core CPI:
Core CPI YoY: Actual 2.7% (Previous 2.5%)
Core CPI MoM: Actual 0.1% (Previous 0.6%)
CPI Measures:
CPI Median: Actual 3.1% (Forecast 3%, Previous 3.0%)
CPI Trim: Actual 3.0% (Forecast 3%, Previous 3.0%)
CPI Common: Actual 2.6% (Previous 2.6%)
Manufacturing Sales MoM:
Actual: -0.9% (Forecast -1.3%, Previous -2.8%)
United States:
Redbook YoY:
Actual: 5.2% (Previous 5.9%)
Corporate Earnings:
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Q2 2025 Earnings:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $5.24 (Estimate $4.47)
Adjusted Revenue: $45.68 billion (Estimate $44.05 billion)
Net Interest Income Guidance: Raised to approximately $95.5 billion for the fiscal year (previously around $94.5 billion)
Notable Metrics:
Investment Banking Revenue: $2.68 billion (Estimate $2.16 billion)
Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) Revenue: $5.69 billion (Estimate $5.22 billion)
Equities Sales & Trading Revenue: $3.25 billion (Estimate $3.2 billion)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Q2 2025 Earnings:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.60 (Estimate $1.41)
Revenue: $20.82 billion (Estimate $20.75 billion)
Net Interest Income Guidance: Approximately $47.7 billion for the fiscal year
Notable Metrics:
Net Interest Income: $11.71 billion (Estimate $11.83 billion)
Provision for Credit Losses: $1.01 billion (Estimate $1.16 billion)
Citigroup (C)
Q2 2025 Earnings:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.96 (Estimate $1.60)
Revenue: $21.67 billion (Estimate $21 billion)
Adjusted Revenue Forecast: Approximately $84 billion for the fiscal year
Notable Metrics:
FICC Sales & Trading Revenue: $4.27 billion (Estimate $3.92 billion)
Equities Sales & Trading Revenue: $1.61 billion (Estimate $1.55 billion)
Investment Banking Revenue: $1.92 billion (Estimate $1.65 billion)
Net Interest Income: $15.18 billion (Estimate $14.05 billion)
Market News and Developments:
Stock Market Movement:
Stocks advanced as NVIDIA received U.S. assurances to resume sales of certain artificial intelligence chips to China.
Futures:
Nasdaq 100 Futures: Up 0.6%
S&P 500 Futures: Up 0.4%
NVIDIA (NVDA): Shares strengthened more than 5% in early trading.
Energy Sector:
OPEC Monthly Report:
Crude Oil Output: Averaged 41.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up 349,000 bpd from May.
Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for 2025 and 2026: Left unchanged.
Refinery Intakes: Expected to stay elevated globally, particularly in the U.S., to meet seasonal transport fuel demand.
Federal Reserve and Treasury Comments:
U.S. Treasury Secretary:
Indicated that the formal process for selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair has begun.
Emphasized the importance of an independent central bank.
Mentioned ongoing discussions with Chinese counterparts in the coming weeks.
International Relations:
U.S. and China:
Positive developments with NVIDIA's chip sales seen as a part of broader U.S.-China trade talks.
China's Premier Li: Met with Australia's Prime Minister, highlighting vast cooperation opportunities in energy, minerals, and agriculture.
Technology Sector:
Amazon Web Services (AWS):
Announced an additional $100 million investment in an AWS Generative AI Innovation Center.
Economic Data:
U.S. Inflation: June CPI data showed inflation rising as expected, with headline CPI increasing and Core CPI MoM slightly below forecasts.
Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed Manufacturing Index returned to positive territory, significantly above expectations.
Canadian Inflation: CPI readings were in line with forecasts, indicating steady inflation in Canada.
Corporate Earnings:
Major banks reported stronger-than-expected earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all surpassing analyst estimates in EPS and revenue.
Positive earnings were driven by higher trading revenues and increased net interest income.
Market Sentiment:
Investor optimism was bolstered by technology sector developments and easing trade tensions.
Financial markets are closely watching upcoming speeches and policy decisions, particularly regarding artificial intelligence and trade relations.
Developments
Treasury Secretary Bessent made dovish comments about not rushing trade deals and maintaining Fed independence
Apple (AAPL) commits $500M to American rare earth magnets
AWS announces additional $100M investment in generative AI innovation center
European stocks up 0.2% with tech leading gains
Final Thoughts
Markets are digesting positively. While headline CPI came in slightly hot at 2.7% YoY, the core monthly reading of 0.2% (below the 0.3% forecast) suggests underlying inflation pressures may be moderating. This "Goldilocks" scenario - not too hot, not too cold - is exactly what equity markets wanted to see.
The standout story is the banking sector's strong earnings performance, particularly JPMorgan's investment banking surge, which signals potential improvement in deal activity. Combined with NVIDIA's China chip approval and the NY Fed's manufacturing surprise, we're seeing multiple positive catalysts converging.
Keep an eye on the 10-year yield at 4.41% - any sustained move above 4.50% could pressure equity valuations. The dollar's weakness today is actually helping risk assets, but this dynamic could reverse quickly if inflation data trends higher in coming months.
Bottom line: Today's setup favors risk-on sentiment, but stay nimble as we navigate this earnings season with elevated market valuations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
Like and share. It helps the publication to continue to grow.
Remember what goes up must come down (eventually)
Stay safe and invest wisely and this is in no mean financial advice. [Full Disclaimer]Thank you for supporting this newsletter. It will keep improving.
Harry