Today's Update 07-14-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Fed's Hammack's Remarks
Interest Rates: Mentioned there isn't an imminent need to cut interest rates.
Neutral Rate: Believes we're pretty close to the neutral rate.
Tariffs Impact: Noted the impact of tariffs is being seen in specific areas.
Economic Outlook: We don't know if the economy will boom later this year, but if it weakens, the Fed will respond accordingly.
Investment: Uncertainty has been weighing on investment decisions.
EU Trade Updates:
EU Trade Chief Sefcovic's Statements
Any deal with the U.S. must be acceptable to EU members and the European Parliament.
Believes there's potential to continue trade negotiations with the U.S.
Emphasized the need for a systemic solution regarding China's rare earth export curbs.
Mentioned progress on fast-tracking rare earth supplies to the EU.
If talks with the U.S. fail, the EU might need to consider rebalancing measures.
Upcoming Earnings Estimates for July 15th:
BlackRock (BLK):
Reporting Time: 6:00 AM ET
Estimated EPS: $10.68
Estimated Revenue: $5.38 billion
JPMorgan Chase (JPM):
Reporting Time: 6:55 AM ET
Estimated EPS: $4.43
Estimated Revenue: $44.1 billion
Wells Fargo (WFC):
Reporting Time: 7:00 AM ET
Estimated EPS: $1.40
Estimated Revenue: $20.78 billion
Citigroup (C):
Reporting Time: 7:00 AM ET
Estimated EPS: $1.65
Estimated Revenue: $20.77 billion
Economic Indicators & Events:
July 14:
Canadian Wholesale Sales MoM (8:30 AM ET):
Actual: -0.4%
Previous: -2.3%
U.S. Treasury Auctions (11:30 AM ET):
3-Month Bill:
High Yield: 4.255%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.750
6-Month Bill:
High Yield: 4.145%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 3.000
July 15:
Chinese Economic Data (Released July 14 at 10:00 PM ET):
GDP YoY:
Previous: 5.4%
Forecast: 5.1%
GDP QoQ SA:
Previous: 1.2%
Forecast: 0.9%
Retail Sales YoY:
Previous: 6.4%
Forecast: 5.3%
Industrial Output YoY:
Previous: 5.8%
Forecast: 5.6%
Unemployment Rate:
Previous: 5.0%
Forecast: 5.0%
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (5:00 AM ET):
Previous: 47.5
Forecast: 50.4
Eurozone Industrial Production (5:00 AM ET):
MoM:
Previous: -2.4%
Forecast: 1%
YoY:
Previous: 0.8%
Forecast: 2.2%
Spanish CPI Data (3:00 AM ET):
CPI YoY Final: 2.2%
CPI MoM Final: 0.6%
HICP YoY Final: 2.2%
HICP MoM Final: 0.6%
Core CPI YoY: 2.2%
Market Notes:
Cryptocurrency Surge: Bitcoin has surged past $120,000, indicating strong momentum in cryptocurrencies despite broader market risk-off sentiments.
🌍 Global Tensions:
Brazil seeking 90-day tariff postponement
EU Trade Chief: "It takes two hands to clap" on US negotiations
China rare earth restrictions creating systemic issues
Final Thoughts
The market is sitting at a fascinating crossroads right now. We've got the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance with rates at 4.33%, while trade tensions are heating up faster than a summer barbecue. The fact that Bitcoin is rocketing past $120K while traditional markets are showing risk-off sentiment tells us investors are seeking alternative stores of value.
What really catches my eye is the disconnect between crypto euphoria and equity caution. This suggests institutional money might be hedging against potential trade war fallout. The upcoming Chinese data release at 22:00 could be the catalyst that determines whether we see a broader market selloff or if this is just healthy profit-taking.
Keep your eyes on those bank earnings tomorrow - they'll give us real insight into how the economy is actually performing beneath all the political noise. JPM and BLK results will be particularly telling for market sentiment going into the rest of earnings season.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
Like and share. It helps the publication to continue to grow.
Remember what goes up must come down (eventually)
Stay safe and invest wisely and this is in no mean financial advice. [Full Disclaimer]Thank you for supporting this newsletter. It will keep improving.
Harry