Today's Update 06-18-2025

Key Points and Metrics

Key Points and Metrics:

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Latest Financial and Economic News:

1. 1. U.S. Economic Data:

   • Initial Jobless Claims:

     • Actual: 245K

     • Forecast: 245K

     • Previous: 248K (Revised to 250K)

   • Continued Jobless Claims:

     • Actual: 1.945M

     • Forecast: 1.9405M

     • Previous: 1.956M (Revised to 1.951M)

   • Housing Starts (May):

     • Actual: 1.256M

     • Forecast: 1.35M

     • Previous: 1.361M (Revised to 1.392M)

     • Change MoM: -9.8% (Forecast: -0.8%, Previous: 2.7%)

   • Building Permits:

     • Actual: 1.393M

     • Forecast: 1.422M

     • Previous: 1.422M

     • Change MoM: -2.0% (Forecast: 0%, Previous: -4.0%)

   • MBA Mortgage Applications:

     • Actual: -2.6%

     • Previous: 12.5%

     • 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.84% (Previous: 6.93%)

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   2. Federal Reserve & Interest Rates:

   • FOMC Meeting:

     • Time: 14:00

     • Events:

       • FOMC Rate Statement

       • Interest Rate Decision: Forecast at 4.5%

       • Summary of Economic Projections

       • Median Rate Forecasts (Current, Next Yr, Next 2 Yrs, Long Run)

   • Effective Federal Funds Rate:

     • Current: 4.33% (June 17)

     • Previous: 4.33% (June 16)

   • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR):

     • Current: 4.31% (June 17)

     • Previous: 4.32% (June 16)

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   3. European Central Bank (ECB):

   • Speeches Scheduled:

     • ECB's Panetta: Mentioned risks including U.S. tariffs and Israel-Iran conflict.

     • ECB's Centeno:

       • Expressed worries about growth in Europe.

       • Stated that without growth, inflation won't reach 2%.

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   4. Global Economic Indicators:

   • Eurozone:

     • CPI YoY Final: 1.9% (Forecast: 1.9%)

     • Core CPI YoY Final: 2.3% (Forecast: 2.3%)

     • CPI MoM Final: 0.0% (Forecast: 0%)

   • United Kingdom:

     • CPI YoY: 3.4% (Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.5%)

     • Core CPI YoY: 3.5% (Forecast: 3.5%, Previous: 3.8%)

     • Services CPI YoY: 4.7% (Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 5.4%)

     • CPI MoM: 0.2% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 1.2%)

   • Sweden:

     • Riksbank Rate Decision:

       • Actual: 2.00%

       • Forecast: 2.00%

       • Previous: 2.25%

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   5. Corporate and Market News:

   • Nippon Steel:

     • Plans to invest about $11 billion in U.S. Steel.

     • Finalized a historic partnership with U.S. Steel.

   • Texas Instruments:

     • Plans to invest over $60 billion to manufacture chips in the U.S.

   • S&P Global Ratings:

     • Reported corporate defaults in May are at the highest level since October 2020.

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   6. Geopolitical Events and Energy Markets:

   • Middle East Tensions:

     • Reports of Israel attacking Iran's Supreme Leader's underground headquarters.

     • Statements from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei indicating potential retaliation.

     • U.S. and Russia are in contact regarding the Middle East conflict.

   • Oil Market:

     • Prices: Near a five-month high due to escalating tensions.

     • Impact: Concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply.

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   7. China Economic Activity:

   • Central Bank Actions:

     • People's Bank of China (PBoC) to enhance monetary policy transmission efficiency.

     • Sold 6-month yuan bills in Hong Kong at 1.45%.

   • Foreign Exchange Regulator Announcements:

     • Expressed confidence in maintaining stable operations in the foreign exchange market.

     • Plans to enhance rules for qualified foreign investors and support foreign trade firms.

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   8. Market Overview:

   • Stocks and Bonds:

     • Posted small gains as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

     • S&P 500: Dropped 0.8% in the previous U.S. session.

   • Treasuries:

     • Slight decline in Asia but holding most of the previous day's gains.

   • Currencies:

     • Currency Strength Chart:

       • Strongest to Weakest: AUD, NZD, GBP, JPY, EUR, CAD, CHF, USD.

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🌍 Global Developments

China Policy Moves

• Allowing foreign investors in ETF options trading

• Yuan becoming world's third payment currency

• PBoC enhancing monetary policy tools

Europe Watch

• ECB's Panetta warns of US tariff risks

• UK inflation at 3.4% YoY (vs 3.3% forecast)

• Sweden cuts rates to 2.0%

💼 Corporate Highlights

• Nippon Steel: $11B investment in US Steel operations

• Texas Instruments: $60B+ US chip manufacturing investment

• S&P: Corporate defaults at highest since October 2020

⚡ Market Sentiment

• Stocks mixed ahead of Fed decision

• Treasury yields holding Tuesday's gains

• Dollar steady after yesterday's rally

• Oil volatility expected to continue

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Final Thoughts

Today's Fed meeting occurs against a backdrop of cooling housing data and escalating Middle East tensions. While the rate decision itself is largely telegraphed, Powell's commentary on 2025 policy direction will be market-moving. The housing data suggests the Fed's restrictive policy is working, potentially supporting a more dovish stance going forward.

The oil market's 10% weekly surge reflects genuine supply risk concerns as Iran-Israel tensions escalate. This energy price pressure could complicate the Fed's inflation outlook, especially if conflicts disrupt regional production.

Watch for Powell's language around "data dependency" and any shifts in the dot plot projections. The combination of softening economic data and geopolitical risks creates a complex decision matrix for markets. Energy sector positioning and defensive plays may outperform if tensions continue escalating.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.

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Harry