Today's Update 05-07-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
Economic Events and Data Releases:
Federal Reserve Updates:
FOMC Rate Statement & US Interest Rate Decision (14:00):
Actual: 4.5%
Forecast: 4.5%
Previous: 4.5%
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, aligning with market expectations.
Energy Inventories (Released at 10:30 May 07):
EIA Crude Oil Inventories:
Actual: -2.032 million barrels
Forecast: -1.858 million barrels
Previous: -2.696 million barrels
Larger-than-expected drawdown indicates higher oil demand or lower supply.
EIA Gasoline Inventories:
Actual: +0.188 million barrels
Forecast: -1.2 million barrels
Previous: -4.003 million barrels
EIA Distillate Inventories:
Actual: -1.107 million barrels
Forecast: -0.116 million barrels
Previous: +0.937 million barrels
Mortgage Data:
US MBA Mortgage Applications (07:00):
Actual: +11%
Previous: -4.2%
Significant increase suggests a surge in mortgage activity.
US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (07:01):
Actual: 6.84%
Previous: 6.89%
Slight decrease in mortgage rates.
Eurozone Retail Sales (05:00):
Month-over-Month:
Actual: -0.1%
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: Revised to +0.2% from +0.3%
Year-over-Year:
Actual: +1.5%
Forecast: +1.6%
Previous: Revised to +1.9% from +2.3%
Indicates a modest increase in retail activity compared to last year.
German Industrial Orders (02:00):
Month-over-Month:
Actual: +3.6%
Forecast: +1.3%
Previous: 0.0%
Suggests robust growth in Germany's industrial sector.
Tesla China Deliveries:
April Deliveries: 58,459 units
Change: Down 6% year-over-year
Reflects a decrease in Tesla's China market performance.
Market Sentiment Indices:
Crypto Fear and Greed Index:
Value: 67/100 (Greed)
Fear and Greed Index (General Market Sentiment):
Value: 57/100 (Greed)
Indicates bullish market sentiment.
Corporate Earnings:
Uber Technologies (UBER):
Q1 2025 Results:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.83 (Estimate: $0.50)
Revenue: $11.53 billion (Estimate: $11.62 billion)
Gross Bookings: $42.82 billion (Estimate: $43.14 billion)
Adjusted EBITDA: $1.878 billion (Estimate: $1.84 billion)
Trips: 3.048 billion (Estimate: 2.98 billion)
Guidance:
Q2 2025 Gross Bookings: $45.75B to $47.25B
Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: $2.02B to $2.12B
The Walt Disney Company (DIS):
Q2 2025 Results:
Adjusted EPS: $1.45 (Estimate: $1.20)
Revenue: $23.62 billion (Estimate: $23.05 billion)
Disney+ Subscribers: 126 million (Estimate: 123.34 million)
Guidance:
Fiscal Year Adjusted EPS: $5.75 (Estimate: $5.44)
Anticipates modest increase in Disney+ subscribers in Q3.
Market News and Developments:
US-China Trade Talks:
The United States and China are preparing to hold their first confirmed trade talks since recent tariff escalations.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that negotiations will begin on Saturday, focusing on de-escalation.
Apple Inc. (AAPL):
Apple's executive, Cue, announced:
No plans to develop a general search engine.
Exploring the integration of AI search capabilities into its browser.
Revenue share agreement discussions with Google.
European Union Trade Measures:
The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US-made cars if trade negotiations falter.
Potential retaliation includes targeting Boeing aircraft with tariffs.
Geopolitical Tensions:
India-Pakistan Escalation:
Military tensions have increased, affecting regional markets.
Both nations have reported cross-border engagements.
Russia-Ukraine Situation:
US officials acknowledge a significant gap between Russian and Ukrainian positions.
Ongoing discussions about potential mediations.
Currency Strength Overview:
Strongest Currencies: USD, EUR, GBP, NZD
Weakest Currency: JPY
US Dollar shows strength amid economic data and international developments.
Additional Notes:
Energy Sector:
Crude Oil Prices may be influenced by the larger-than-expected inventory drawdowns.
Russia & Venezuela discussions on energy and oil could impact global oil markets.
Market Sentiment:
The overall "Greed" sentiment in both general and crypto markets suggests potential bullish trends but warrants caution for possible overbought conditions.
Economic Indicators to Watch:
Upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims release at 08:30.
Upcoming Earnings:
ConocoPhillips (COP) scheduled to report on May 8th at 07:00 ET.
Trade Developments
Treasury Secretary Bessent: China negotiations begin Saturday in Switzerland
EU preparing retaliatory tariffs on Boeing jets if US trade talks falter
EU Trade Chief: Thursday announcement on countermeasures to US tariffs
Final Thoughts
Markets are showing cautious optimism today with the announcement of US-China trade talks providing a temporary reprieve from recent tensions. However, all eyes remain on the Fed's decision and Powell's commentary, which will be crucial for determining the path of interest rates. The geopolitical situation between India and Pakistan bears watching, though markets have largely looked past these tensions. Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments suggest the administration is pursuing multiple trade negotiations simultaneously, with some "quite advanced towards agreements in principle." Investors should remain vigilant as the Fed's messaging on inflation and economic growth will likely set the tone for market direction in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry