Today's Update 04-15-2025
Key Points and Metrics
Key Points and Metrics:
US Redbook Year-over-Year (YoY) Retail Sales
Actual: 6.6%
Previous: 7.2%
Indicates a slight slowdown in retail sales growth compared to the previous period.
Bank of Canada Rate Cut Expectations
Chances of a rate cut on Wednesday increased to 50% from roughly 40% before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, according to swaps market data.
Market sentiment is leaning toward a possible rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data
CPI YoY
Actual: 2.3%
Forecast: 2.7%
Previous: 2.6%
CPI Month-over-Month (MoM)
Actual: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.7%
Previous: 1.1%
Core CPI YoY
Actual: 2.2%
Previous: 2.7%
Core CPI MoM
Actual: -0.2%
Previous: 0.4%
Lower-than-expected inflation figures led to the Canadian dollar weakening.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales MoM
Actual: 0.2%
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: 1.7%
Manufacturing sales increased slightly, beating expectations.
U.S. Import and Export Prices MoM
Import Prices
Actual: -0.1%
Forecast: 0%
Previous: 0.4% (Revised to 0.2%)
Export Prices
Actual: 0%
Forecast: 0%
Previous: 0.1% (Revised to 0.5%)
Indicates a minor decrease in import prices and stagnation in export prices.
NY Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Actual: -8.1
Forecast: -13.5
Previous: -20.0
Better than expected but still negative, suggesting continued contraction in manufacturing activity.
U.S. Stock Futures
Fluctuated after a two-day advance as traders focus on potential tariff exemptions by the Trump administration to alleviate trade war impacts.
Comments from Financial Executives
Citigroup CFO:
Notes significant uncertainty around tariffs, deregulation, and tax policy, which is putting downward pressure on growth.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan:
States that consumers are continuing to inject money into the economy.
Does not foresee a recession in 2025 and anticipates no rate cuts.
European Central Bank (ECB) Data
Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) Bond Holdings:
Total Holdings: €1.54 trillion as of last week.
Corporate Bond Purchases Settled: €272.7 billion.
Public-Sector Bond Purchases Settled: €2,040.1 billion.
Reflects ongoing monetary policy measures by the ECB.
Effective Federal Funds Rate
April 14th: 4.33%
April 11th: 4.33%
No change in the effective federal funds rate over this period.
Upcoming Events:
US 52-Week Bill auction (11:30)
White House Press Briefing (13:00)
Trump Executive Orders signing (14:30)
API Crude Oil inventory report (16:30)
Fed's Cook speech (19:10)
Chinese economic data release including GDP, Industrial Output, Retail Sales (22:00)
UK CPI data (April 16, 02:00)
Final Thoughts:
The markets are currently focused on trade policy developments, with potential tariff exemptions being closely watched. Canadian inflation data came in significantly below expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut tomorrow. This contrasts with Bank of America's outlook of no rate cuts in the US this year. The consumer economy appears resilient based on retail metrics, though slightly cooling from previous levels. Upcoming Chinese economic data and UK inflation figures will be critical for global market direction in the next 24 hours. Traders should monitor developments around tariff negotiations as they may significantly impact market sentiment in the near term.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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Harry