Today's Update 03-21-2025

Key Points and Metrics

key points and metrics:

• Canadian Retail Sales MoM:

  • Actual: -0.6%

  • Forecast: -0.4%

  • Previous: 2.5%

• Canadian Core Retail Sales MoM:

  • Actual: 0.2%

  • Forecast: -0.2%

  • Previous: 2.7%

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash:

  • Forecast: -13

  • Previous: -13.6

• US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count:

  • Previous: 592

• US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count:

  • Previous: 487

• Australian PMIs (Previous Readings):

  • Services PMI Flash: 50.8

  • Manufacturing PMI Flash: 50.4

  • Composite PMI Flash: 50.6

• Japanese Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous):

  • Previous: 49.0

• Singapore CPI MoM NSA:

  • Forecast: 0.9%

  • Previous: -0.8%

• French PMIs:

  • Manufacturing PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 46.1

    • Previous: 45.8

  • Services PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 46.3

    • Previous: 45.3

  • Composite PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 46.1

    • Previous: 45.1

• German PMIs:

  • Services PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 52

    • Previous: 51.1

  • Manufacturing PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 47

    • Previous: 46.5

  • Composite PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 51.1

    • Previous: 50.4

• Eurozone PMIs:

  • Manufacturing PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 48.2

    • Previous: 47.6

  • Services PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 51.1

    • Previous: 50.6

  • Composite PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 50.7

    • Previous: 50.2

• UK PMIs:

  • Services PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 51.1

    • Previous: 51.0

  • Manufacturing PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 47.2

    • Previous: 46.9

  • Composite PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 50.5

    • Previous: 50.5

• Chicago National Activity Index:

  • Forecast: -0.14

  • Previous: -0.03

• US S&P PMIs:

  • Services PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 51.2

    • Previous: 51.0

  • Manufacturing PMI Flash:

    • Forecast: 51.8

    • Previous: 52.7

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Market Highlights:

• US Stock Market:

  • Stocks fell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on track for their fifth consecutive week of losses.

  • Traders are scrutinizing corporate earnings amid economic concerns and global trade tensions.

• Federal Reserve Updates:

  • Fed's Goolsbee highlighted that delaying action may lead to "backloaded" cuts and potential costs.

  • Businesses are anxious and delaying capital expenditures due to tariff uncertainties.

  • Fed's Waller prefers to continue the current pace of balance sheet reduction and believes the slowed runoff pace beginning in June 2024 is appropriate.

• European Central Bank (ECB):

  • ECB's Stournaras expects the terminal rate to be around 2% due to recent fiscal decisions, higher than previous expectations.

  • He agrees that a rate cut in April could be considered the default option and emphasizes the direction of monetary policy still has a way to go.

• Economic Policies and Updates:

  • German Upper House passed debt reform, approving a €500 billion fund.

  • Traders are increasing bets on ECB rate cuts, anticipating 50 basis points more easing in 2025.

• Geopolitical Events:

  • Middle East:

    • Israeli Military reported sirens in Southern Israel and interceptions of launches from Northern Gaza.

  • China-US Relations:

    • China's Vice Foreign Minister noted in-depth discussions on China-US relations.

  • Japan-China Relations:

    • Japan's PM Ishiba met with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tokyo.

• Corporate News:

  • Semiconductor Industry:

    • Chip companies in Germany have requested €6 billion in subsidies, triple the available funding.

  • US Small Business Administration:

    • Planning to cut over 40% of its workforce as part of restructuring.

  • Technology Sector:

    • Elon Musk visited the Pentagon, meeting with US Defense Secretary Hegseth.

  • Cryptocurrency:

    • The US has removed sanctions against cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash.

    • Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 31/100, indicating "Fear".

    • Fear and Greed Index for broader markets is at 20/100, signaling "Extreme Fear".

• Notable Developments:

  • Trump's Announcements:

    • Expected to announce a multibillion-dollar jet fighter deal.

    • Responded positively to reports about UK King Charles potentially making an offer to ease US-Canada tensions by making the US an associate member of the Commonwealth.

  • UK Royal News:

    • Media reports suggest King Charles may make a "secret offer" to Donald Trump during a state visit.

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FINAL THOUGHTS

Market sentiment remains deeply negative with both equity and crypto fear indices showing significant concern. Fed officials continue signaling rate cuts are coming but timing remains uncertain, with businesses reportedly delaying investments due to tariff uncertainties. The ECB appears more committed to its rate-cutting path with April looking increasingly likely for the next move. Geopolitical tensions persist but diplomatic channels remain active. Today's triple witching expiration could add volatility to markets already dealing with five consecutive weeks of declines in major indices. Upcoming PMI data next week will provide important insights into economic momentum across major economies.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.

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Harry